Whether the world gold price will continue to increase in 2026 or not is a question that investors are interested in after 2025, with a strong increase of more than 60% and setting more than 50 new records.
Gold has led asset groups in terms of performance since the beginning of the year, heading for the strongest year increase since 1979.
Unlike previous years when only one factor dominated the gold market, the increase in world gold prices this year came from many combined drivers.
Net buying by central banks, prolonged geopolitical tensions, trade instability, falling interest rates and a weak USD all contribute to boosting demand for gold.
The latest report from the World Gold Council (WGC) shows that geopolitical factors contribute about 12 percentage points to the increase since the beginning of the year, while the weak USD and slightly decreased interest rates add 10 points.
Central banks continue to buy gold strongly, causing official demand to remain significantly higher than before the pandemic.
The World Gold Council predicts that many factors driving the explosive increase in 2025 will continue to play a role in 2026.
However, the starting context has changed, the World Gold Council predicts that gold prices in 2026 will fluctuate within a narrow range, with a change of -5% to +5%.
However, the outlook remains open, as three scenarios could take gold prices in different directions in 2026:
The "light slide" scenario of the economy: Economic growth slows down and the Fed cuts interest rates more, causing gold to increase by 5-15% thanks to defensive cash flow.
In the scenario of deep recession, the Fed will ease drastically, bond yields will decrease sharply, gold may increase by 15-30%, strongly attracting demand for gold.
With the scenario of a US policy recovery, economic growth bounces, yields and USD increase, gold could fall 5-20% if investors reverse their positions and central banks reduce purchases.
Despite the World Gold Council's cautious view, many Wall Street banks predict that gold prices will increase further in 2026.
J.P. Morgan Private Bank forecasts gold prices could reach $5,200-5,300 an ounce thanks to sustained demand.
Goldman Sachs forecasts prices to be around $4,900/ounce by the end of 2026.
Deutsche Bank has set a gold price range for 2026 at $3,950-4.950, with a base scenario of $4,450.
Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley forecasts gold prices in 2026 to be around $4,500/ounce but warns of short-term fluctuations.
Although the world gold price is unlikely to repeat the increase of more than 60% in 2025, gold will enter 2026 with a solid foundation.
core factors such as economic uncertainty, central bank diversification strategies and gold's role as an anti- volatility hedge continue to remain.
