According to a newly published report, the World Gold Council (WGC) said that gold prices in 2026 may continue to set new peaks with an increase of 15% to 30% compared to the present.
However, the organization also emphasized that the 5-20% discount scenario is entirely possible, depending on economic policy developments and interest rates in the US - factors considered decisive for the global gold trend.
Main drivers: Shelter cash flow and reduced interest rates
2025 is considered one of the strongest growth years for gold, as the price of this precious metal has jumped 53%. The combination of geopolitical instability, US tax policy and central bank buying has created a "super cycle" of gold pushing prices up rapidly.
The WGC said a 30% price increase in 2026 could happen if three factors continue to converge: Global bond yields fall; escalating geopolitical tensions; and investors' safe-haven sentiment increase sharply.
Another important pillar is investment demand through gold ETFs. As of 2025, global ETF gold funds have attracted about 77 billion USD, equivalent to more than 700 tons of gold.
If calculated from May 2024, the accumulated figure has reached about 850 tons, but the WGC noted that this level is still less than half of the previous gold price increase cycles, meaning there is still much room for investors to expand their positions.
Contrasting scenario: Gold price may drop sharply
However, the WGC has also issued many warnings about the possibility of world gold prices falling by 5-20% in 2026. This scenario appears if US President Donald Trump's policies promote US economic growth more strongly than expected. In that case, inflation will tend to return, forcing the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to maintain or raise interest rates in 2026.
A rate hike will increase bond yields and strengthen the USD. At that time, the opportunity cost of holding gold increases, causing cash flow to shift to stocks or other high-yield assets. Global investors are also tending to shift to a risk-off state, reducing their demand for gold as a safe haven.
The WGC warned that this reversal could see gold ETFs see a strong withdrawal and lead to significant downward pressure. However, the organization also emphasized that gold prices may receive certain ease thanks to the buying power of consumers and long-term investors - groups that often take advantage of corrections to increase gold reserves.
2026: Five pillars of the gold market
Despite the two opposite scenarios, the WGC believes that the gold market in 2026 will continue to be strongly affected by familiar variables: the Fed's interest rate policy, geopolitical situation, the strength of the USD and investment demand via ETFs.
In the context of gold prices having increased by more than 50% in just one year, 2026 is predicted to be a pivotal time, even one of the most volatile years of the current gold price cycle.
The WGC concluded that regardless of the direction of development, gold will still play an important role in the portfolios of many global investors - both as a safe haven asset and a risk balance tool against increasingly unpredictable fluctuations in the world economy.
World gold prices are currently trading around $4,190/ounce.
Regarding domestic gold prices, SJC gold bar prices are trading around 152.3 - 153.8 million VND/tael (buy - sell).
The price of 9999 Bao Tin Minh Chau gold rings is trading around 150 - 153 million VND/tael (buy - sell).
