Newsweek's latest hurricane report says that as Hurricane Rafael forms and continues its journey through the Caribbean into the Gulf of Mexico, it could be the first hurricane to make landfall on the Louisiana coast in November.
The US National Hurricane Center (NHC) predicts that Hurricane Rafael's path is expected to pass over Jamaica, then pass over the Cayman Islands at hurricane strength and pass northwest Cuba on the afternoon of November 6, then enter the Gulf of Mexico and from there head towards Louisiana.
"The storm is forecast to enter the Gulf of Mexico this weekend, but due to significant uncertainty about the storm's track and long-term forecast intensity, it is too early to determine what impacts may occur," the US National Hurricane Center said in a hurricane bulletin.
AccuWeather forecaster Tom Kines notes that no tropical storm or hurricane has ever made landfall in Louisiana in November. If Rafael forms and follows its forecast track, it would be the first storm to follow this unusual path.
Typically, the waters in the Gulf of Mexico cool in November and strong wind shear causes any storms that attempt to enter the Gulf of Mexico to dissipate. However, hurricane forecaster Tom Kines points out that Hurricane Rafael is expected to strengthen into a hurricane as it moves through the Caribbean.
"The waters in the Caribbean are still very warm, warmer than normal. So initially we thought this storm would intensify quite quickly," he said.
Hurricane Rafael is expected to weaken as it moves deeper into the Gulf of Mexico due to wind shear.
The latest storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season will bring heavy rains to parts of the western Caribbean, including Jamaica and parts of Cuba, through midweek, the US National Hurricane Center forecasts. Flooding and landslides are possible in these areas.
"Heavy rainfall will spread north into Florida and surrounding areas of the southeastern United States during mid- to late-week," the bulletin said.
The projected path of Hurricane Rafael released by the US National Hurricane Center shows tropical storm-force winds from the latest storm will affect Louisiana from November 8, with the possibility of landfall on November 9.
Hurricane Rafael is the 17th storm of the Atlantic hurricane season. Rafael formed shortly after Hurricane Patty, which dissipated off the west coast of Portugal.
In addition to the latest storm Rafael, forecasters in the US are also monitoring a low pressure area in the southwest Atlantic, with a 20% chance of forming within the next 7 days.
