Newsweek's latest hurricane report says that as Rafael forms and continues its journey through the Caribbean into the Gulf of Mexico, it could be the first storm to make landfall on the Louisiana coast in November.
The US National Hurricane Center (NHC) predicts Rafael's path is expected to pass through Jamaica, then pass the Cayman Islands as a hurricane, and pass northwest Cuba on the afternoon of November 6, then into the Gulf of Mexico, thereby heading towards Louisiana.
"The storm is expected to enter the Gulf of Mexico this weekend, but due to significant uncertainty in its path and long-term forecast intensity, it is too early to determine any potential impacts," the US National Hurricane Center's hurricane bulletin said.
AccuWeather forecaster Tom Kines noted that there has never been a tropical storm or hurricane making landfall in Louisiana in November. If Rafael forms and moves along the forecast track, it will be the first storm to have a different path.
Typically, the sea water in the Gulf of Mexico will cool in November and strong wind shear will cause any storm ever intended to enter the Gulf of Mexico to dissipate. However, forecaster Tom Kines pointed out that Rafael is expected to strengthen into a hurricane as it moves across the Caribbean.
"The sea in the Caribbean is still very warm, warmer than usual. Therefore, we initially suspected that this storm would strengthen quite quickly" - he shared.
Rafael is expected to weaken as it moves deeper into the Gulf of Mexico due to wind shear.
The forecast from the US National Hurricane Center emphasizes that the latest storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season will bring heavy rain across the western Caribbean, including Jamaica and parts of Cuba, through midweek. There is a possibility of flooding and landslides in these areas.
"Heavy rains will spread north into Florida and neighboring areas of the southeastern United States through the mid-to-late weekend," the bulletin said.
The projected path of Rafael released by the US National Hurricane Center shows that tropical storm-level winds from the latest storm will affect Louisiana from November 8, with the storm likely making landfall on November 9.
Rafael is the 17th storm of this year's Atlantic hurricane season. Rafael formed right after Hurricane Patty - a storm that dissipated off the west coast of Portugal.
In addition to the latest storm Rafael, forecasters in the US are also monitoring a low pressure in the southwest Atlantic, with a 20% chance of forming within the next 7 days.
