The latest storm/low pressure forecast bulletin from the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said that at 5:00 a.m. on November 4, the center of tropical storm Marce was at about 11.5 degrees north latitude, 134.3 degrees east longitude, 935 km east of Eastern Visayas.
Maximum winds near the center of the storm are 65 km/h, gusting up to 80 km/h, and the central pressure is 1002 hPa. The storm is moving west-northwest at a speed of 25 km/h. The range of strong storm winds extends out to 380 km from the center of the storm.
As Typhoon Marce moves northwestward within the Philippine Forecast Area (PAR), it could increase northeasterly winds, causing rain over Northernmost Luzon and the eastern part of Luzon starting today or tomorrow, November 5.
Sea conditions forecast for the next 24 hours: Rough seas with 3m waves on the coasts of Batanes and Ilocos Norte; 2.5m waves on the coasts of Babuyan Islands; east coast of mainland Cagayan and Isabela.
Regarding forecast track and intensity: Typhoon Marce is expected to move westward or west-northwestward until Wednesday morning (November 6) before slowing significantly. From Wednesday afternoon until the end of the forecast period, the tropical storm will move north-northeast at a slow pace over the Philippine Sea east of the northernmost tip of Luzon.
This part of the forecast is highly uncertain due to two possible scenarios. One is that the storm will move westward more toward the northernmost tip of Luzon or mainland Luzon. The other is that the storm will move erratically in the Philippine Sea east of the northernmost tip of Luzon. Therefore, this forecast track is likely to change in the next recommendations or bulletins.
The western path is likely to change in the next 24 hours due to the high pressure area north of Typhoon Marce. Therefore, the scenario of the typhoon making landfall may change from the Babuyan Islands to the Isabela area.
PAGASA forecasts that Typhoon Marce is expected to gradually strengthen and may reach severe tropical storm status tomorrow morning or afternoon (November 5) or afternoon. The storm could also reach typhoon level tomorrow evening (5 November) or early Wednesday morning (6 November).
