The latest storm/low pressure forecast bulletin of the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said that at 5:00 a.m. on November 4, the center of tropical storm Marce was at about 11.5 degrees north latitude, 134.3 degrees east longitude, 935 km east of Eastern Visayas.
Maximum winds near the center of the storm are 65 km/h, gusting up to 80 km/h, and the central pressure is 1002 hPa. The storm is moving west-northwest at 25 km/h. The range of strong storm winds extends out to 380 km from the center of the storm.
As Typhoon Marce moves northwestward in the Philippine forecast area (PAR), it may increase northeasterly winds, causing rain over Northernmost Luzon and the eastern part of Luzon starting today or tomorrow, November 5.
Sea conditions forecast for the next 24 hours: Rough seas with 3m waves on the coasts of Batanes and Ilocos Norte; 2.5m waves on the coasts of Babuyan Islands; east coasts of mainland Cagayan and Isabela.
Forecast track and intensity: Tropical Storm Marce is expected to move west or west-northwestward through Wednesday morning (November 6) before beginning to slow down significantly. From Wednesday afternoon until the end of the forecast period, the tropical storm will move slowly north-northwestward over the Philippine Sea east of northernmost Luzon.
This forecast is highly uncertain due to two possible scenarios. One is that the storm will move more westerly towards Northernmost Luzon or mainland Luzon. The other is that the storm will move erratically over the Philippine Sea east of Northernmost Luzon. Therefore, this forecast track is very likely to change in subsequent advisories or bulletins.
The westward track is likely to change over the next 24 hours due to the high pressure area to the north of Marce. As a result, the storm's landfall scenario could change from the Babuyan Islands down to Isabela.
PAGASA forecasts that Typhoon Marce is expected to gradually strengthen and may reach severe tropical storm status by tomorrow morning or afternoon (November 5) or afternoon. The storm may also reach typhoon status by tomorrow evening (November 5) or early Wednesday morning (November 6).
