The storm/low pressure forecast bulletin of the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said that at 4:00 p.m. on November 3, the center of the tropical depression was at about 9.8 degrees north latitude; 137.7 degrees east longitude, outside the Philippine Forecast Area (PAR), 1,315 km east of Eastern Visayas.
Maximum winds near the center of the tropical depression reached 55 km/h, gusting up to 70 km/h and central pressure 1,004 hPa.
The tropical depression is moving northwest at a speed of 30 km/h. The tropical cyclone's wind range extends outward up to 340 km from the center of the tropical depression.
PAGASA said that in the coming hours, the tropical depression will gradually move northwest at a rapid speed and may enter PAR tomorrow (November 4), strengthening into tropical storm Marce. Notably, this low pressure has just formed at 2:00 a.m. on November 3, developing from a cloud cluster at 10:00 p.m. on November 2.
Typhoon Marce is expected to continue moving northwest until November 5 before slowing down significantly and turning more northward.
From November 6, Typhoon Marce is forecast to move north, then westward at a slow speed across the northernmost tip of Luzon in the eastern Philippines.
At this stage, two scenarios may occur. One is that the tropical storm will move more westward toward the northernmost tip of Luzon or mainland Luzon. The other is that the tropical storm will move erratically in the Philippine Sea east of the northernmost tip of Luzon. Therefore, this forecast track is likely to change in PAGASA's next storm forecasts.
As tropical depressions move northwestward in the PAR region, it could strengthen northeasterly winds next week. The northeast wind combined with the trough of the tropical storm will bring rain to Northernmost Luzon and the eastern part of Luzon starting on November 4 or 5.
If the forecast track of the tropical storm changes to a more likely landfall scenario, heavy to bulky rains from the direct tropical storm could begin affecting Northern Luzon on Thursday (7.11) or Friday (8.11).
Floods and landslides caused by rain can occur in these conditions, especially in areas vulnerable to saturated soil.
Although the northeast winds have caused moderate sea roughness on the northern coast of Luzon, the tropical storm will make the sea worse next week on the northern coast of Luzon and the west and east coast of Central and southern Luzon.
