The storm/low pressure forecast bulletin of the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said that at 4 p.m. on November 3, the center of the tropical depression was located at about 9.8 degrees north latitude; 137.7 degrees east longitude, outside the Philippines' forecast area (PAR), 1,315 km east of Eastern Visayas.
The strongest wind near the center of the tropical depression reached 55 km/h, gusting up to 70 km/h and central pressure 1,004 hPa.
The tropical depression is moving northwest at 30 km/h. The tropical cyclone's wind range extends outward up to 340 km from the center of the tropical depression.
PAGASA said that in the coming hours, the tropical depression will gradually move northwest at a rapid speed and may enter PAR tomorrow (November 4), strengthening into tropical storm Marce. Notably, this depression has just formed at 2:00 a.m. on November 3, developing from a cloud cluster at 10:00 p.m. on November 2.
Hurricane Marce is expected to continue moving northwest through November 5 before beginning to slow significantly and turn more northward.
From November 6, Typhoon Marce is forecast to move north, then west at a slow speed across Northern Luzon in the eastern Philippines.
At this stage, two scenarios are possible. One is that the tropical storm will move more westerly towards the Northernmost Luzon or mainland Luzon. The other is that the tropical storm will move erratically over the Philippine Sea towards the east of the Northernmost Luzon. Therefore, this forecast track is likely to change in subsequent PAGASA typhoon forecast bulletins.
As the tropical depression moves northwestward in the PAR region, it may intensify northeasterly winds next week. Northeasterly winds combined with the tropical storm trough will bring rain over Northern Luzon and the eastern part of Luzon starting on November 4 or 5.
If the forecast track of this tropical storm changes to a more landfall scenario, heavy to torrential rainfall directly caused by the tropical storm could begin affecting Northern Luzon on Thursday (November 7) or Friday (November 8).
Flooding and landslides caused by rain can occur under these conditions, especially in areas susceptible to saturated soil conditions.
Although the northeasterly winds have brought moderate seas on the coasts of Northern Luzon, the tropical storm will worsen sea conditions next week on the coasts of Northern Luzon and the western and eastern coasts of Central and Southern Luzon.
