Boeing on July 18 forecast that the global commercial fleet will reach 50,000 aircraft by 2045, of which more than 90% will be more fuel-efficient "new generation" aircraft. This figure is higher than the current global fleet of 28,000 aircraft, reflecting higher long-term demand thanks to economic growth and new tourist routes, according to AFP.
Aircraft manufacturers will have to manufacture nearly 44,000 new aircraft in the next two decades to meet new growth and replace old aircraft, according to Boeing's latest annual forecast. These figures, announced ahead of the Farnborough Airshow in the UK next week, are similar to Boeing's 2025 forecast, which also emphasizes favorable tourism demand in the context of GDP growth.
By 2045, it is estimated that 92% of the fleet will benefit the environment from newer aircraft models, which are estimated to consume about 20% less fuel. Currently, about 32% of the global fleet is new generation aircraft models.
Boeing's Vice President of Commercial Marketing - Mr. Darren Hulst - said at a press conference that this year "is not as favorable in terms of trade from the perspective of the aviation industry as many of us expected when entering 2026. However, the basic factors for the aviation industry and aviation tourism demand are still completely intact," he added.
Mr. Hulst currently predicts that tourism demand in 2026 will only reach "about half or even slightly lower" than initial expectations when entering this year. He said that Boeing was surprised by the speed at which airlines are shifting passenger flows from the Middle East to other markets due to conflict.
In the period from 2026 to 2045, Boeing's forecast shows that annual passenger traffic growth will reach 4% and global economic growth will reach 2.5%. Like last year, Boeing's outlook report emphasized the gap between new aircraft production and demand, in the context of supply chain difficulties since the COVID-19 pandemic.
Mr. Hulst said that this "deficit" is likely not to be remedied for narrow-body aircraft until the late 2020s, and will last until the early 2030s for wide-body aircraft.
