The US National Hurricane Center (NHC) said it is monitoring a low pressure area east of the Lesser Antilles. As of 8:00 a.m. on July 28, local time, the low pressure area still has a 40% chance of developing into a storm in the next few days.
As the depression moves west-northwest into the Caribbean, conditions are expected to become more favorable for development.
Environmental conditions are forecast to become more favorable and the tropical depression could strengthen around midweek as the system is near or over the northern Leeward Islands, Greater Antilles or southwestern Atlantic, the NHC said in its latest hurricane bulletin on July 28.
Thus, after a few quiet weeks, the new storm will awaken the Atlantic hurricane season.
A period of Sahara dust has blocked storms in the Atlantic basin since Hurricane Beryl hit Texas more than two weeks ago, but the calm did not last long as changes in weather patterns across the tropics began in early August.
Over the past month, many dusty streams from the Sahara desert in Africa have passed through the tropical Atlantic. According to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the air around the Sahara (SAL) air mass has about 50% less moisture than the normal atmosphere, which means the presence of SAL could be disadvantageous for cloud formation and thunderstorms, which are the foundation for tropical cyclones.
Significant dusty streams and dry air often appear in the Atlantic Ocean during the first two and a half months of the hurricane season and help limit the formation of tropical cyclones.
Alberto, Beryl and Chris, all of which developed during the busy mid-June to early July, could all find favorable locations for development outside the Sahara bushes. Since the series of storms were named, dust has covered the tropics.
FOX's Forecast Center believes that unfavorable weather patterns across the tropical Atlantic will disappear in early August.
Computer models operated by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center show that a periodic climate cycle called the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) will create more favorable atmospheric conditions for the development of tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic in the first half of August.
In the summer and fall, MJO can lead to increased storm activity in areas considered to be in areas of increased rain (upward air) and reduced tropical storm activity in areas of inhibited (downward air).
Computer forecast models indicate that the area of increased rain, which is associated with the MJO, will move across the tropical Atlantic in early August.
While there are no guarantees, at least this model will create more favorable conditions for tropical storm development than in recent weeks, awakening the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.
