The US National Hurricane Center (NHC) said it was monitoring a low pressure area east of the Lesser Antilles archipelago. As of 8:00 a.m. local time on July 28, the low pressure area still has a 40% chance of developing into a storm in the next few days.
As the depression moves west-northwest into the Caribbean, conditions are expected to become more favorable for development.
“Environmental conditions are forecast to become more favorable and the tropical depression may strengthen around midweek as the system nears or over the northern Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles or the southwest Atlantic Ocean" - NHC said in the latest storm bulletin on July 28.
Thus, after a few quiet weeks, the new storm will reawaken the Atlantic hurricane season.
A wave of Saharan dust has kept storms in the Atlantic basin at bay since Superstorm Beryl hit Texas more than two weeks ago, but the calm did not last much longer due to changes in weather patterns across the country. throughout the tropics starting in early August.
Over the past month, multiple plumes of dust from Africa's Sahara Desert have crossed the tropical Atlantic Ocean. According to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the air around the Sahara Air Layer (SAL) has about 50% less moisture than the normal atmosphere, which means the The presence of SAL can be detrimental to cloud formation and thunderstorm activity, which underpin tropical cyclones.
Significant plumes of dust and dry air typically appear in the Atlantic during the first two and a half months of the hurricane season and help limit tropical cyclone formation.
Hurricane Alberto, Hurricane Beryl and Hurricane Chris, all of which developed during the busy mid-June to early July period, were all able to find favorable spots to develop outside of the Saharan dust plumes. Since that series of named storms, dust has blanketed the tropics.
The FOX Weather Prediction Center believes that unfavorable hurricane weather patterns across the tropical Atlantic will disappear by early August.
Computer models run by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center show that a periodic climate cycle known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) will create atmospheric conditions more favorable for growth. development of tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean during the first half of August.
In the summer and fall, the MJO can lead to an increase in hurricane activity in areas considered to be in enhanced rain zones (rising air) and a decrease in tropical storm activity in areas that are inhibition (air sink).
Computer forecast models indicate that this region of enhanced rain with rising air, associated with the MJO, will move across the tropical Atlantic in early August.
While there are no guarantees, the pattern will at least create more favorable conditions for tropical storm development than in recent weeks, kicking off the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season .
