On May 7 (US time), the Washington Post reported that analysts at the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) assessed that Iran could withstand the US naval blockade for at least 3-4 months before starting to face serious economic difficulties.
According to the Washington Post, this conclusion was forwarded to officials in the US administration this week. Sources said this is a secret CIA analysis, sent to policymakers to assess Iran's resilience to pressure from Washington.
The assessment said that naval blockade may not create an immediate impact large enough to force Tehran to quickly change its position. Iran may still maintain it for a few months before economic pressures become more serious.
The Washington Post commented that this conclusion could raise new questions about US President Donald Trump's optimism in ending the conflict with Iran soon. President Trump has repeatedly emphasized that military and economic pressure could push Tehran to accept an agreement.
Naval blockade is part of the US's pressure strategy on Iran, amid escalating tensions in the Middle East and the Strait of Hormuz. Washington believes this measure is aimed at limiting Tehran's economic and maritime capabilities, while creating pressure in negotiations.
However, if the CIA's assessment is accurate, the US may face a longer-than-expected period before the blockade creates a clear impact. This may also affect the White House's calculations of the timing, extent and effectiveness of pressure measures on Iran.
The White House has not yet made public comments on the above information. The Washington Post also did not specify the specific factors that led the CIA to believe that Iran could stand firm for at least 3-4 months.
This assessment was made while diplomatic channels related to Iran continue to be mentioned. However, the prospect of reaching an agreement is still unclear, as the US continues to maintain blockade and Iran shows no signs of accepting all requests from Washington.
