Germany's Deutsche Bank has just issued a warning about the risk of a crisis in confidence in the US dollar, in the context of escalating global trade tensions due to US President Donald Trump's tariff policies.
The greenback has fallen sharply this week, losing more than 1.5% of its value to the Japanese euro and Yen, along with more than 1% to the British pound.
The main reason is that the US decided to impose a counterpart tax of 10% to 50% on a series of imported goods from many countries.
This has caused investors to seek safe-haven assets such as gold, German bonds and the Swiss francs.
According to George Saravelos, Director of Global Foreign Exchange Research at Deutsche Bank, the shift in capital flows could have a major impact on the currency market.
"The big risk is that confidence in the US dollar is eroded for a long time, causing the foreign exchange market to fluctuate strongly beyond control," he warned in a report to customers on April 3.
Not only the US, the eurozone could also be negatively affected. The European Central Bank (ECB) is concerned that the depreciation of the USD could cause a decline in the region, especially when the euro suddenly appreciates.
"ECB does not expect an external shock of a decline due to loss of confidence in the US dollar and the appreciation of the euro at the same time as tariff policies," Mr. Saravelos emphasized.
The widespread impact of tariff policies is also shaking the global market. On April 3, the US stock market recorded its worst day since 2020, while oil prices plummeted and bond yields fell sharply.
Other major financial institutions, such as JPMorgan and Fitch, have also warned of the risk of an economic recession, with forecasts that US GDP growth could fall by up to 1.5%.
With the additional tax burden of $660 billion a year - the highest increase in decades - prices in the US will scale sharply, causing inflation to increase by 2%. Along with that, consumer psychology and business confidence can affect and put more pressure on the economy.
