According to storm forecasts from meteorological models, the next storm, named Paolo, is likely to form in early October, with the risk of directly affecting Luzon and some key areas in the Philippines.
According to the latest storm news on September 28 from the Philippine Weather System/Pacific Storm Update, storm No. 10 Bualoi after leaving the Philippines still leaves a large cluster of tornadoes and disturbances in the Pacific Ocean. The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) forecasts a new low pressure area that could enter the Philippine Forecast Area (PAR) on October 1.
Some international meteorological models predict that this weather system is likely to gradually strengthen into a tropical storm as it moves within the PAR as it approaches the Bicol Region, Calabarzon and Central Luzon regions next week. If it forms, it will be the 16th typhoon of 2025 in the Philippines, named Paolo.
In its 2-week typhoon forecast update, PAGASA said:
In week 1 (September 26 - October 2): Storm Bualoi leaves PAR and enters the East Sea. At the same time, a low pressure appears at the eastern edge of PAR but the possibility of formation is low.
In week 2 (October 3 - 9): The low pressure tends to move towards Luzon, the possibility of developing into a storm is assessed at a moderate level. In addition, another tornado may appear in the Northeast region of PAR, but the probability of storm formation is low.
The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) is also monitoring two disturbances
Disturbance A (Border Palau): Forming a low pressure area with thunderstorms but not well organized, light wind, the possibility of development is only 10% in the next 7 days.
Interests B (Southern Guam): Expected to become a low pressure area in the middle of next week, which may gradually develop as it moves into the Philippine Sea, with a probability of forming a storm of 30% in the next 7 days.
As Typhoon Bualoi has just brought heavy rain and strong winds to Luzon, the emergence of Typhoon Paolo - if it forms - will create more pressure to respond to natural disasters for the Philippines.
Meanwhile, in the weather forecast for storm No. 10 in the East Sea, the Vietnam National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting (NCHMF) said that at 6:00 a.m. on September 28, the center of the storm was at about 16.2 degrees North latitude; 109.7 degrees East longitude, about 360km East Southeast of North Quang Tri, about 150km East of Da Nang City.
The strongest wind is level 12 (118-133 km/h), gusting to level 15.
It is forecasted that in the next 3 hours, the storm will move in a West-Northwest direction, at a speed of about 25 km/h.
At 4:00 p.m. on September 28, the center of the storm was at 17.5 degrees North latitude, 107.6 degrees East longitude, in the waters of Nghe An - Quang Tri. Level 12-13, gust level 16. The storm is moving west-northwest at about 30 km/h, likely to strengthen.
At 4:00 a.m. on September 29, the center of the storm was at 18.9 degrees North latitude, 105.2 degrees East longitude, on the mainland of the provinces from Thanh Hoa - Ha Tinh. Intensity level 9-10, gust level 13. Moving west-northwest, about 25-30 km/h, entering the mainland of the Central provinces
At 4:00 p.m. on September 29, the center of the storm was at 20.6 degrees North latitude, 102.0 degrees East longitude, in the Upper Laos area. The storm is moving west-northwest at 20-25 km/h, moving deep inland and weakening into a tropical depression, then a low pressure area.
