However, some experts believe that the growth cycle may have peaked, as real interest rates remain high and the global economy begins to recover.
World gold prices last weekend held steady around $4,001.21/ounce, after a sharp decline in October. Despite a decrease of about 9% from a record of more than 4,350 USD/ounce, the precious metal is still on track to record its strongest year of price increase since 1979.
Gold's rally is supported by net buying from central banks, large capital flows into ETFs, and strong increases in gold bar and gold bar purchases globally. However, analysts are divided about the outlook for gold prices in the final period of 2025.
According to Macquarie Group, gold prices may have hit a short-term peak, as the interest rate cut cycle of central banks is about to end.
As global growth begins to recover, real interest rates remain high and US-China tensions cool down, we expect gold prices to peak, and will gradually decline next year, said Ric Deverell, chief economist at Macquarie.
However, Mr. Deverell also emphasized that the decline will be slower than previous cycles, and prices will remain significantly higher than the end of 2023, when gold was only around 2,000 USD/ounce.
In contrast to Macquarie, many large institutions on Wall Street still maintain an optimistic view.
In a report released on November 7, UBS Bank (Sweden) said that although gold prices have adjusted to around $4,000/ounce, the bank still forecasts gold prices to $4,200/ounce in the next 12 months.
UBS noted that if political risks or financial fluctuations increase, gold prices could well surpass the $4,700/ounce range.
Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs is even more optimistic, forecasting gold could reach $4,900/ounce by the end of 2026. The bank's report believes that long-term investment demand and gold's strategic defensive role will continue to maintain sustainable buying power, despite short-term fluctuations.
According to the World Gold Council (WGC), the sharp decline in October - the largest one-day decline in more than a decade - was effectively a necessary break for a long-term uptrend.
The WGC said that there has not been a long-term sell-off signal, and if the USD temporarily strengthens, causing gold prices to fluctuate, the trend of gold accumulation will still be solid.
Experts agree that, despite passing the short-term peak, 2025 is still the brightest golden year since 1979, reflecting the defensive mentality in the uncertain world period - high interest rates, record-breaking US public debt and the risk of recession in major economies.
As a London expert commented: "If 2024 is the year of gold as a safe haven, 2025 is the year of gold holding the throne."
Regarding domestic gold prices in Vietnam, SJC gold bar prices are currently trading around 146.9 - 148.4 million VND/tael (buy - sell).
Bao Tin Minh Chau 9999 gold ring price is trading around 145.8 - 148.8 million VND/tael (buy - sell).
Gold prices continue to be supported by safe-haven demand
According to investment institutions, gold prices in recent weeks have continued to be supported by a weakening USD and a return of safe-haven demand, amid concerns about the US government's prolonged closure and legal disputes related to tariffs.
