Severe Weather Europe forecasters said that since the end of last week, temperatures across Europe have been affected by a deep low pressure trough moving across northern Scandinavia and into northwestern Russia, accompanied by a cold Northern air mass, heavy snowfall and cold weather. The sharp drop in temperatures has spread across Sc Scandinavia and the Baltic, while the rest of Europe will experience warmer weather.
However, this cold air mass has gradually moved eastward since November 16 and 17, pushing the air band in contact with the cold - warm moving together, causing heavy rain in Italy and the Western Balkans, as well as heavy snow in the Alps. As it moves further east, the system creates conditions for the Atlantic high pressure to establish a north-south corridor across Western Europe.
Therefore, this corridor remains open, creating conditions for the Northernmost air mass to move south this week. The intensified cold front will combine with the cold front in Northern Europe and gradually spread to Western Europe, then continue to the Iberia peninsula and northwest Africa in the middle of this week.
Temperatures will be significantly colder than normal for this time in Ireland, the UK, France, Spain and Portugal from 19 November to 21 November and from 21 November to 23 November in Morocco, Algeria and Cambodia.
According to the consensus forecasts, the cold air mass is expected to persist through at least the end of next week across Western Europe.
Strong winds often appear when there is a large difference in pressure and temperature. With a deep and wide low pressure area in the west, strong waves will also create large wind disturbances along the cold-warm air bands moving from the Mediterranean to the Balkans this week. That means a large-scale upgrading mechanism will be formed, leading to widespread weather activity with heavy rain and thunderstorms.
The southwest wind blowing through the Mediterranean Sea is still warmer than usual, keeping the warm air mass there throughout the week, with high humidity. This is a favorable condition for heavy rain and strong thunderstorms.
Warm and moist air increases convective energy in the Mediterranean region, especially from the Liguria Sea to the Tyrrhenian Sea, as well as in the Adriatic and Ionian seas.
It is forecasted that on November 18, high instability in the atmosphere will create conditions for dangerous weather to occur widely. Strong thunderstorms could bring heavy hail, strong gusts of wind, tornadoes and light showers, especially in central and southern Italy, Malta and southwestern Balkans to western Greece.
A strong and prolonged southwest wind will also bring heavy rains along the Apennines and Dinaric Islands in the western Balkans, accompanied by thunderstorms. These are the places with the highest rainfall forecast, possibly up to 300-500mm from November 17 to November 22.
In addition, consecutive convective bands, combined with terrain rain caused by continuous southwest winds, will increase local rainfall. Montenegro and northern Albania are forecast to see extremely heavy rain, with some areas forecast to exceed 700mm, lasting through the weekend.
