Signs appear that the wind belt around the Arctic may weaken, causing cold air to flow south, increasing the need for electricity and disrupting traffic.
The risk of a severe cold in the US, Asia and some parts of Europe this winter is increasing, according to Bloomberg.
Although many factors that caused last year's record warm winter still exist, this year's winter weather is affected by an important phenomenon: Polar vortex - a strong wind zone surrounding the Arctic - showing signs of weakening, paving the way for cold air to spread to key areas.
If a severe cold occurs, demand for electricity and gas will increase sharply, causing consumers to spend more. In the US, electricity demand has increased rapidly, especially due to the explosion of data centers, pushing up wholesale electricity prices. This year's cold weather could also lead to traffic chaos, threatening the US and European wheat crop.
As December ends, pay attention to the tropical cyclone, warned Dan Hart, a weather forecaster at OpenWeather ( London, UK).
Winter in the US will be colder than usual and certainly colder than last year, Mr. Matt Rogers - Chairman of climate forecasting company Commodity Weather Group - predicted.
Commodity Weather Group's winter forecast bulletin this year said that in the US, the area from the northwest Pacific to central New England is likely to be colder than average, while the Great Plains and Great Lakes will have significantly lower temperatures.
In Europe, although major weather models predict a generally mild winter, there are growing signs of more frequent cold air waves, especially in Northern and Central Europe.
In China - the phenomenon of La Nina, which means cooler Pacific surface temperatures - could make winter colder than usual, increasing the risk of gas shortages, according to Jack Lu, an expert at Morgan Stanley. China's official forecast also shows below-average temperatures in the southern and northeastern regions of the country.
However, forecasters note that there is no guarantee that temperatures will drop so early that it will significantly affect energy demand. Last year, the extreme cyclone only really dissipated in March.
However, if the cold air in the Arctic overflows before the holiday, flight schedules and cargo transportation may be disrupted. Extreme cold air waves also increase the likelihood of snow spreading further south or making storms in the Atlantic and Pacific more intense.
Mr. Judah Cohen - Director of seasonal forecasting at the Verisk Institute for Atmospheric and Environmental Studies - pointed out that the semi-annual fluctuating wind system is blowing eastward. This movement can trigger a sudden heating up of the average layer, which means the temperature in the atmosphere increases rapidly and is a warning sign of a weakening of the circulation of the tornado. If this phenomenon occurs early "it will have a huge impact on the entire winter weather this year".
