Early forecasts for the 2026 storm season are giving a feeling of "ease of breathing" as the number of storms may be at an average or lower than average, partly due to the impact of El Nino. However, meteorologists and disaster management experts are sending the opposite message: Don't let "soft" numbers deceive you.
According to storm forecasters at the US National Hurricane Center (NHC), the important thing is not the number of storms, but the intensity and landfall point. "It doesn't matter what the season forecast says, just one storm is enough" - NHC storm expert Brad Reinhart emphasized. This is also the consistent view of the NHC: Risks always exist every year, regardless of how the storm season is predicted.
Reality shows that even in years affected by El Nino - which often reduces storm activity in the Atlantic - extremely strong storms, even super typhoons, can still appear. The reason is that atmospheric conditions and ocean temperatures can change rapidly, creating conditions for storms to form and intensify at unpredictable speeds.
More worryingly, after a relatively "peaceful" year in 2025 with few storms making landfall, many areas are at risk of falling into a state of subjectivity and negligence in preparation. Experts warn that not preparing emergency kits, evacuation plans or response plans can increase damage when storms occur.
Some scientists even believe that publishing storm season forecasts is easily misleading. Professor Rob Young (University of Western Carolina) said these forecasts are "problematic" because the public does not know how to use that information.
You have to prepare for an Andrew or Katrina storm every year, because one is enough," he said.
History has proven this. Super typhoon Andrew in 1992 formed during the climate transition but still reached Category 5 when it made landfall in Florida, causing damage of more than 25 billion USD and destroying tens of thousands of homes. Such examples show that the number of storms does not fully reflect the level of risk.
Another factor making the hurricane season unpredictable is sea temperature. Oceans warmer than average can cause storms to form quickly and strengthen suddenly. In particular, the Gulf of Mexico area - which has produced many super typhoons - is likened to an "unpredictable card".
Former head of the US Federal Emergency Management Agency Craig Fugate described the area with a notable image: "The Gulf of Mexico operates under the laws of a bar brawl - warm water, quick reaction and extremely unpredictable".
In other words, a storm when entering this sea area can suddenly intensify strongly, turning a "below-average" storm season into a real disaster in just a short time.
Current storm forecast models still give a probability of about 32% that at least one major storm will make landfall on the US coast this year. This number is not small, especially considering the devastation of strong storms.
