The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)'s Typhoon/Tropical Forecast bulletin on December 5 said that the large low pressure area named Invest 95W (Tropical A) east of the Malay Peninsula, located near the entrance to the Gulf of Thailand in the southwest of the East Sea, continues to create chaotic showers and thunderstorms.
Upper-level winds are favorable for the development of the depression before moving across the Malay Peninsula and exiting the basin on December 6. The depression may then strengthen in the Andaman Sea.
Regardless of how it develops, this low pressure is likely to cause huge rainfall in some southernmost areas of Vietnam, Cambodia, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia (mainly Sumatra) and some areas of the Andaman and Nicobar Islands in the next few days. This rainfall could cause widespread flooding.
The JTWC assessed the probability of the low pressure strengthening into a storm in the next 7 days at a low of 20%.
The weather forecast bulletin on December 5 of the Vietnam National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting said that on the day and night of December 5, in the central and southern East Sea (including the sea area of Truong Sa archipelago), the sea area from Khanh Hoa to Ca Mau, Ca Mau to Kien Giang and the Gulf of Thailand, there will be scattered showers and thunderstorms. During thunderstorms, there is a possibility of tornadoes and strong gusts of wind of level 7-8.
The forecast for the day and night of December 6 in the eastern sea of the northern East Sea is strong northeast winds of level 6, gusting to level 8; waves from 2.0-4.0m high; rough seas. The western sea area of the northern East Sea will have northeast winds of level 5, sometimes level 6, gusting to level 7; waves from 2.0-3.5m high; rough seas. All ships operating in the above areas are at high risk of being affected by tornadoes, strong winds and big waves.
In the Pacific region, the JTWC also said that another low pressure area (low pressure B) has formed in the south and southeast of Chuuk state in the Federated States of Micronesia and is producing chaotic showers and thunderstorms.
Moderate to strong upper-level winds may limit any development of the system as it moves westward through the weekend. However, over the weekend, the depression will move into areas with less typhoon overhead and could strengthen into a tropical depression on Sunday (December 8) or Monday (December 9) when the system approaches Palau. Areas in Yap ( Federated States of Micronesia), the Republic of Palau and Mindanao (Philippines) are advised to monitor the progress of this low pressure.
The JTWC assessed the probability of the low pressure intensifying over the next 7 days at an average of 60%.
