The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)'s storm/low pressure forecast bulletin on December 5 said that a large low pressure area named Invest 95W (low pressure A) in the east of the Malay Peninsula, located near the entrance to the Gulf of Thailand in the southwestern East Sea, continues to create chaotic showers and thunderstorms.
Upper-level winds are favorable for the development of the low pressure system before it moves across the Malay Peninsula and exits the basin on December 6. The low pressure system may then intensify over the Andaman Sea.
Regardless of how it develops, this depression has the potential to bring very heavy rain to parts of southern Vietnam, Cambodia, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia (mainly Sumatra) and parts of the Andaman and Nicobar Islands over the next few days. This rainfall could cause widespread flooding.
JTWC assessed the probability of the low pressure strengthening into a storm in the next 7 days at 20%.
The weather forecast for December 5 of the Vietnam National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting said that during the day and night of December 5, in the central and southern East Sea (including the Truong Sa archipelago), the sea from Khanh Hoa to Ca Mau, Ca Mau to Kien Giang and the Gulf of Thailand, there will be scattered showers and thunderstorms. During the thunderstorms, there is a possibility of tornadoes and strong gusts of wind of level 7-8.
Forecast for the day and night of December 6 in the eastern sea area of the northern East Sea area is strong northeast wind level 6, gusting to level 8; waves from 2.0-4.0m high; rough seas. The western sea area of the northern East Sea area is northeast wind level 5, sometimes level 6, gusting to level 7; waves from 2.0-3.5m high; rough seas. All ships operating in the above areas are at high risk of being affected by tornadoes, strong winds and big waves.
In the Pacific region, the JTWC also said that another low pressure area (Low Pressure B) has formed south and southeast of Chuuk state in the Federated States of Micronesia and is creating chaotic showers and thunderstorms.
Moderate to strong upper-level winds are likely to limit any further development of the system as it moves westward through the weekend. However, the low will move into an area of less hostile upper-level winds over the weekend and could intensify into a tropical depression on Sunday (December 8) or Monday (December 9) as the system approaches Palau. Areas in Yap State (Federated States of Micronesia), Republic of Palau and Mindanao (Philippines) are advised to monitor the progress of the low.
JTWC assessed the probability of low pressure strengthening in the next 7 days at an average of 60%.
