The conflict that broke out from the end of February in the Middle East has begun to have direct consequences for the global fuel supply chain. According to the latest analysis at the CERAWeek energy conference held in the US, after aviation fuel, diesel and gasoline are forecast to be the next targets to fall into shortage.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz - which transports up to 20% of the world's oil and liquefied gas - has created a huge "loophole" in supply. Observers have discovered that this wave of shortages is spreading rapidly from South Asia to East Asia and is currently approaching the European border.
Reality shows that disruptions at important maritime arteries not only push energy costs up but also directly threaten transportation and industrial production. Economic experts believe that Europe is facing a major test of its energy self-reliance and reserve capacity.
While Western allied countries are frantically seeking alternative supplies from the Western Hemisphere or Africa, the time to maneuver is running out as April approaches. Close dependence on energy flow through the Strait of Hormuz makes any military movement here potentially lead to a widespread shortage scenario.
At the same event, German Economy Minister Katherina Reiche also expressed deep concern about the pressures weighing heavily on the continent's largest economy. Although Germany's strategic reserves are still at a safe threshold, Ms. Reiche warned that if the conflict continues, the actual shortage of volume will be revealed in April or May.
Experts have discovered that this is a red alarm signal showing that current contingency plans are only short-term and cannot resist if the supply chain is completely broken in the long term.
In addition, pressure from domestic public opinion is also a difficult problem for European leaders. When gasoline and oil prices at pumping stations continuously peak, consumer confidence begins to falter, forcing governments to consider between foreign commitments and social security stability.
Preparing for an energy shortage scenario is not only an economic issue, but also a vital task to maintain the solidarity and stability of the entire bloc in the current volatile geopolitical context.
