The assassination of Iran's top leader risks creating a "stationed state", a system of high militarization, carrying an extreme defensive mentality, ready to fight to survive and no longer having any political red lines.
Mr. Michael Mulroy - former US Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense - told Al Jazeera that without direct intervention on the ground or a full-scale armed uprising from within, Iran's deep-seated security apparatus could still survive by maintaining internal solidarity.
This resilience stems from Iran's dual military structure. The government is not only protected by the regular army (Artesh), but also by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Supporting them is the Basij volunteer militia - a widespread paramilitary network in residential areas.
Secretary of the Iranian Supreme National Security Council Ali Larijani informed that the leadership transfer process in Iran will begin from March 1. A temporary leadership council will be established soon. The President, Chief Justice of the Supreme Court and a clergyman of the Guardian Council will take responsibility until the successor leader of Mr. Khamenei is elected.
The rapid establishment of an interim leadership council shows that the system's "survival processes" have been activated.
According to political analyst Hossein Royvaran in Tehran, the Iranian political system is designed to be "institutional rather than personal", and can operate almost automatically even when the political leadership is neutralized.
However, an analyst in Tehran said that Iran's direction is still unclear as officials seek to "send a signal of stability".
Officials here are trying to show stability, emphasizing that the situation is under control and state institutions are still operating effectively," said Mr. Abas Aslani, senior researcher at the Center for Strategic Studies in the Middle East.
A notable change immediately after the incident was Iran's shift from religious legitimacy to survival nationalism.
Recognizing that the death of the supreme leader could weaken the spiritual bond with a part of the people, the remaining officials are reshaping the war not to protect clerics, but to protect Iran's territorial integrity.
Political sociologist Saleh al-Mutairi believes that the Iranian government's declaration of a 40-day national mourning creates a "funeral trap" for the opposition. Millions of mourners filling the streets unintentionally form a "human shield" for the government, making anti-government protests unlikely to erupt strongly in the short term.
If Iran overcomes the initial shock, the country after the incident may be very different: less calculated and possibly more violent.
For many years, Supreme Leader Khamenei has pursued the doctrine of "strategic patience", accepting to be punished to avoid a full-scale war.
Professor Hassan Ahmadian at the University of Tehran said that period ended with the death of Supreme Leader Khamenei.
Iran has learned a costly lesson from the June 2025 war: Restraint is understood to be weak," he said. "If attacked, Iran will burn everything down," Mr. Ahmadian added, implying that the upcoming response could be broader and more damaging than any previous escalation.
