The tropical Pacific region is heating up rapidly, indicating the possibility of a strong El Nino wave. However, the weakening of monsoon winds - a factor that could strongly promote or restrain this phenomenon - has not yet appeared.
Weather forecasting experts said that these interactions are inherently complex and difficult to predict, so it is too early to confirm how strong El Nino will be this time.
The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said that there is a 80% chance that El Nino will form in July.
Sea temperatures in key areas of El Nino in the equatorial Pacific are rising rapidly, while an unusually large mass of hot water is accumulating beneath the sea surface.
Many leading weather forecasting agencies forecast that sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean may rise above the average of 2.5 degrees Celsius or higher by the end of 2026, a forecast considered particularly high.
Since the first major El Nino phenomenon in modern times was recorded in the period 1877-1878, there have only been 3 times the temperature exceeded the threshold of 2 degrees Celsius, including the periods 1982-1983, 1997-1998 and 2015-2016.
Adam Scaife - head of long-term forecasting at the UK Meteorological Agency - believes that this El Nino could be the strongest in decades or "even reach a record level".
Something will definitely happen. We are very confident about it and it seems like this will be a big event" - he told AFP.
NOAA forecasts a probability of about 1/3 that the El Nino phenomenon this time reaches the threshold of 2 degrees Celsius or higher, which means entering the region called "super El Nino".
However, according to Michelle L'Heureux - head of El Nino-South Oscillation (ENSO) monitoring at NOAA, some important pieces are still unclear. A typical feature of the strongest El Nino waves is the weakening of monsoon winds blowing from east to west along the equator.
However, Ms. Michelle L’Heureux noted that these winds are very unpredictable and can sometimes suddenly strengthen. "When that happens, it will slow down the development of El Nino or even reverse the trend," she said.
El Nino usually peaks around December, but ocean temperature release is slow and may continue to push global temperatures up in the following years. Many record hot years, including 1998, 2010, 2016, 2023 and 2024, appear after or simultaneously with major El Nino waves.
Climate scientists believe that the global temperature record may be broken in 2026, but 2027 is the more noteworthy time. According to Adam Scaife, if an extreme El Nino occurs this year, "the world is very likely to record a new record heat level in 2027".
