World gold prices are being re- positilized by analysts with a new level, as more and more investors predict that gold prices will reach the mark of 4,000 USD/ounce in the next 6-9 months.
In the context of economic, geopolitical and global debt uncertainty soaring, gold is returning to its top safe-haven asset position, with a new floor price of $3,000/ounce, according to Mr. Aakash doshi - Head of Global Gold Strategy at US-based asset management company State Street Global Advisors.
Mr. doshi commented that each crisis sets a new level for gold prices. The 2008 financial crisis established a floor price of $1,000/ounce. The 2020 COVID-19 pandemic pushed gold prices to $2,000/ounce. The era of de- toan hoa and public debt is pushing the floor price to $3,000/ounce.
According to State Street's mid-year report, gold prices are forecast to fluctuate in the range of 3,100-3,500 USD/ounce in the short term. However, the optimistic scenario, which is receiving a lot of support, believes that gold could surpass $4,000/ounce in the next 6-9 months, especially if the US Federal Reserve (Fed) cuts interest rates in the second half of the year.
Gold is leaning towards an uptrend. In the next 6-12 months, the probability of an additional 500-1,000 USD is much higher than the possibility of a decrease, Mr. doshi emphasized.
According to State Street, global debt reached a record of 324,000 billion USD in the first quarter of 2025, of which nearly 30% was government debt - the highest rate ever. In the context of no major economy controlling the budget deficit, investors are looking to gold as an alternative to the pre-match (fiat).
We are at an outbreak, not necessarily a crisis, but a major turning point in how investors see the risk from debt and bond yields, doshi said.
Central bank demand for gold remains strong, expected at around 900 tons in 2025, just slightly below last year's record of 1,000 tons. However, it is worth noting that cash flow from gold ETFs is also returning, showing that individual and institutional investors have begun to participate more strongly.
The global trade divide is holding back growth and could send inflation back. In that context, gold is an ideal defensive choice, said doshi.
According to Mr. doshi, even if the US avoids recession, the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates 1-2 times this year is an important factor that could push gold above the $3,500 mark and closer to $4,000/ounce.
On the morning of June 17 (Vietnam time), the world gold price is fluctuating around 3,395 USD/ounce. As of 6:00 a.m., the price of SJC gold bars was listed by Saigon Jewelry Company at 117.6-19.6 million VND/tael (buy in - sell out).
