As severe tropical storm Kristine (local name for storm No. 6 Trami) left the Philippine Forecast Area (PAR) on October 25, 2024 and entered the East Sea, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said in its latest bulletin that the possibility of Trami returning to PAR was not ruled out.
In the storm forecast bulletin, PAGASA pointed out that in the East Sea, Typhoon Trami will turn U or counterclockwise on Sunday (October 27) or Monday (October 28) and move eastward in the general direction of the PAR area. The possibility of returning to PAR is not ruled out.
However, PAGASA said that this scenario depends largely on the development of the newly formed Typhoon Kong-rey east of the PAR and the development of other weather systems around Typhoon Trami as it passes through the East Sea.
Depending on how close it is as it moves over the Philippine Sea, the outer rain bands of Typhoon Kong-rey could also affect the northernmost tip of Luzon, PAGASA said.
It could also continue to affect the initial southwest monsoon caused by Typhoon Trami, which could affect the western part of Southern Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao in the coming days.
PAGASA said that at 4:00 a.m. on October 26, the center of Typhoon Kong-rey was at about 16.5 degrees north latitude, 139.4 degrees east longitude, 1,845 km east of Central Luzon, Philippines, outside the PAR. Maximum winds near the center of the storm are 65km/h, gusting to 80km/h. The storm is moving northwest at 35 km/h.
Typhoon Kong-rey is expected to enter PAR tonight, October 26, or early tomorrow morning, October 27.
According to PAGASA's typhoon forecast, Kong-rey will gradually strengthen, possibly reaching severe tropical storm status on Sunday (October 27) and becoming a typhoon on Monday (October 28). When entering PAR, Kong-rey will be locally known as Leon.
Meteorologists call the interaction of two storms the Fujiwhara effect.
According to the National Weather Service, when two tropical storms "turn in the same direction and pass close enough to each other, they will begin to interact violently around the common storm center."
The Hong Kong Observatory (China) said the two storms must be about 1,350km apart for this to happen.
A stronger storm tends to have a primary impact on the path of a weaker storm. This interaction will end when there is a stronger influence of a large-scale weather system from the outside, one of two weakening tropical storms or two merging storms - the Hong Kong Observatory (China) explains.
PAGASA said its forecast model from October 31 to November 6 shows Kong-rey continuing to move northwest towards the eastern part of Northern Luzon before turning back towards Taiwan (China).
