The latest storm and low pressure information from the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) on the afternoon of October 24 said that a new low pressure (10d) formed outside the Philippine forecast area (PAR) and is likely to strengthen into a tropical depression in the next 24 hours.
According to the latest monitoring time, at about 8:40 a.m. on October 24, the new low pressure near the Philippines was located 2,295 km east of northeastern Mindanao, Philippines, outside the Philippines' forecast area.
PAGASA warns that this low pressure system located east of Mindanao has the potential to strengthen into a tropical storm.
"Within the next 24 hours, there is a high possibility that this low pressure will strengthen into a tropical depression or a weak storm. However, in the next 3 days, this low pressure will still be far from the mainland and is not expected to directly affect the Philippines," said Philippine weather expert Benison Estareja.
PAGASA said the new low pressure area, when it enters the Philippines' forecast area within the next 24 hours, will be locally named Leon.
Previously, PAGASA's storm and low pressure forecast model predicted that from October 23 to 29, there was a possibility of a low pressure entering the northeastern boundary of PAR and then turning towards Japan.
PAGASA weather service assistant director Chris Perez shared in an interview on Balitanghali that the potential low pressure system named Leon is forecast to bring rains to both Northern Luzon and Central Luzon regions.
In addition to the low pressure area (10d), another low pressure area (10e) is also being monitored within PAGASA's monitoring area. The possibility of low pressure area 10e strengthening into a tropical depression within the next 24 hours is low.
The new low pressure appeared in the context of Typhoon Tra Mi just making landfall in Luzon, Philippines, causing heavy rain and severe flooding in many areas of the country. When it made landfall in the Philippines, the strongest wind near the center of Typhoon Tra Mi was 95 km/h, with gusts of up to 160 km/h. The storm is said to have weakened slightly as it passed through Northern Luzon due to interaction with the mainland.
Typhoon Tra Mi continues to move west-northwest into the East Sea. It is forecast that Typhoon Tra Mi will leave the Philippines' forecast area in the afternoon of October 25.
The latest update on Typhoon Tra Mi at 2:00 p.m. on October 24 from PAGASA said that the eye of the storm is in the coastal waters of Santa Cruz, Ilocos Sur, Philippines. The storm is moving southwest at a speed of 15 km/h, with maximum sustained winds of 95 km/h near the eye of the storm and gusts of up to 115 km/h.
Notably, PAGASA stated that storm Tra Mi is likely to have very unpredictable developments in the East Sea during the forecast period.
Accordingly, this East Sea storm will move west or west-northwest over the East Sea and leave the Philippines PAR forecast area in the afternoon of October 25.
PAGASA said that there is a possibility that Typhoon Tra Mi will circle over the East Sea on October 27 and September 28, then head towards the forecast area of the Philippines. However, this scenario depends a lot on the development of the weather area in the east of PAR, which is forecast to strengthen into a tropical depression within the next 24 hours.
Typhoon Tra Mi is forecast to strengthen again as it moves across the East Sea. PAGASA does not rule out the possibility of Typhoon Tra Mi strengthening into a typhoon in the next 5 days.
