On February 28, Israel and the United States launched an attack on Iran that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
The attack, which is forecast to have a strong impact on Iran's energy and export sectors.
Iran is the 3rd largest oil producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). This country pumps about 4.5% of the world's oil. Iran produces 3.3 million barrels of crude oil per day as well as produces an additional 1.3 million barrels of condensate.
According to energy consulting firm FGE, Iran's domestic oil refining capacity is 2.6 million barrels per day.
According to Kpler estimates, in 2025, Iran exported nearly 820,000 barrels per day, including liquefied petroleum gas (LPG). This level is slightly lower than in 2024.
Oil and gas production facilities in Iran are concentrated in the southwestern provinces. Khuzestan produces oil, Bushehr produces gas from Southern Pars and Bushehr also produces condensate.
Iran exports 90% of crude oil through Kharg Island for transportation through the Strait of Hormuz. Analysts believe that Saudi Arabia and other OPEC countries can compensate for Iran's supply decline by pumping more oil, although reserve capacity is decreasing due to increased production under the policy that this group of producers has implemented in the past year.
Iran's main oil buyers are private oil refineries in China. The US Treasury Department has imposed sanctions on some Chinese oil refining companies for buying Iranian oil.
China declared that it does not recognize unilateral sanctions against trading partners. However, Iran's oil purchases have decreased. Data from Kpler, released on February 27, showed that Iran also accumulated a record amount of about 200 million barrels of oil at sea in various forms. This figure is equivalent to global consumption in 2 days.
Iran has avoided sanctions for many years through measures such as transferring oil from one ship to another at sea and changing the origin of oil to hide the location of oil tankers from satellites.
Iran exploits gas from the South Pars field offshore. This is part of the world's largest natural gas field, accounting for about 1/3 of the total reserves of the entire field. The field that Iran shares with Qatar is called the North Dome.
Due to technical limitations and sanctions, most of the gas exploited from South Pars is used for domestic consumption.
According to the Gas Exporting Countries Forum, Iran's total gas production in 2024 is estimated at 276 billion m3, of which about 94% is consumed domestically.
In June last year, Israel attacked 4 complexes belonging to Phase 14 of South Pars. These facilities are located about 200km from Qatar's gas projects.
The total gas reserves of the entire joint field between Qatar and Iran are estimated at about 1,800 trillion m3, enough to meet the world's needs for 13 years.
Due to the impact of the attack on Iran, the Strait of Hormuz was basically closed. Traffic flow has decreased significantly after the Iranian attacks. Oil tankers are gathering both inside and outside the entrance to the strait.
The Strait of Hormuz is a strategic maritime route with an energy market, every day about 1/5 of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas transported by sea passes through here.
The prolonged disruption will strongly impact global oil trade. A retail trading product operated by IG Group quoted West Texas Intermediate oil as 8% higher on the evening of February 28, London time.
