Recently, according to a report by Swiss newspaper Neue Zürcher Zeitung (NZZ), the amount of military aid that European allies have pledged to Ukraine has decreased by 57% in recent months. Monthly commitment cash flow has fallen sharply from about 4 billion USD to only about 2 billion USD.
The shaky commitment to support from Europe becomes even more worrying as it comes amid uncertainty over the role of the United States, its most important ally.
Although US President Donald Trump has pledged to quickly end the conflict and the US has just signed a mineral deal with Kiev in May, with his flexibility and not being tied down, Mr. Trump can completely decide to withdraw the US from the conflict.
A Ukraine without the US will not collapse immediately. After nearly three years of conflict, dozens of other countries are still supporting the Ukrainian army. However, no ally can replace the role of the United States.
If the US cuts or stops aid, the battlefield situation will change significantly. Ukraine will immediately face a serious shortage of air defense, leaving cities and infrastructure vulnerable to Russian attacks. On the front line, the military will have to divide the ammunition supply and will lose real-time updated intelligence sources from the US.
With no longer the ability to attack, Ukraine will be forced to completely switch to defense. Russian forces may gradually advance and gradually control the territory, realizing President Putin's goal of completely controlling the four areas that have been acquired, even though Russia may still suffer heavy losses.
The biggest consequences of the US withdrawal will fall on Europe's shoulders. European leaders will see the US President Donald Trump administration turning its back on Ukraine as the first step towards a " post-US Europe". They will conclude that the US is no longer interested in ensuring the security of Europe as it has been for decades.
Without the leadership and reliable security of the US, European powers such as France, Germany and the UK may not be strong enough to force Russia to retreat. At that time, NATO was at risk of becoming a "paper tiger".
Experts say the US withdrawal from Ukraine will signal Russia that the US will no longer commit to curbing Russia's power in Europe. This not only endangers US allies but also goes against the core interests of the US itself.
If the US turns its back on Ukraine now, the European crisis could become a burning issue in Mr. Trump himself's second term.
