In their forecast earlier this year, meteorologists expected La Nina to dominate the weather in December 2024 as well as January and February 2025. However, La Nina has not yet appeared and if it does, La Nina is also predicted to be weaker than the initial assessment. Therefore, the winter forecast in the Northern Hemisphere becomes very uncertain.
The problems with the 2024 winter forecast are making it more difficult for traders to make decisions, according to Bloomberg. This increases the likelihood of a spike in energy and food prices in 2025.
When forecasters make 2024 winter predictions, they often mention the presence of La Nina. La Nina typically leads to colder weather in Japan and the Pacific Northwest region of the United States and leads to more dovish weather in densely populated areas on the East Coast of the United States. But as La Nina is expected to weaken, other weather patterns are likely to impact winter weather.
The model expected to play a bigger role this winter is the North AtlanticA fluctuation (NOA) - the transition between high pressure and low pressure near Greenland. When NOA is at a positive stage, severe cold spells in North America are often short. However, if NOA turns negative, cold temperatures will continue on the East Coast of the United States.
Another factor is the Madden-Julian fluctuations - the weather wave that appears from the Indian Ocean and spreads around the world. Madden-Julian fluctuations could lead to more cold air being pushed down from the Arctic or bringing the mild air out of the Pacific Ocean.
In addition, the 2024 winter could be affected by the polar vortex - a large mass of very cold air in the Arctic that once broke out could cause temperatures to drop sharply in a short time.
When affected by a tropical cyclone, cold air crosses the bone and flows south to North America, Asia or Europe. In February 2021, a tropical cyclone led to a winter storm that killed more than 200 people across Texas and other parts of the US.
Judah Cohen, a scientist at the Environment and Atmospheric Research Agency, said that the cold spells this winter may not last long. However, there are signs that the temperature drop in the coming months will have a certain impact.
Matt Rogers, chairman of commercial forecasting agency Commodity Weather Group, said that this winter will be colder than last year, although still warmer than the 10-year average.
Goldman Sachs analysts led by Samantha Dart stated in a document sent to customers late last month that the early winter weather was colder than average and this winter has looked significantly colder than a year ago, which has sharply increased the expected demand for heating.
Europe is in the middle of a winter that is predicted to be the coldest since the Russia-Ukraine conflict broke out. In contrast, large areas in Asia from the Indian Ocean to the Western Pacific, including many areas in South, Southeast and East Asia, are expected to have more temperate winter weather, the Tokyo Climate Center of the Japan Meteorological Agency predicted in October.
In China, temperatures are expected to be above average in most parts of the country, including up to 2 degrees Celsius above normal in some provinces along the east coast and further inland, the National Meteorological Center of the China Meteorological Administration said. Temperatures may be colder in some places, including northwest Heilongjiang and northeast Inner Mongolia.
