In forecasts earlier this year, meteorologists predicted that La Nina would dominate the weather in December 2024 as well as January and February 2025. However, La Nina has not yet emerged, and if it does, it is expected to be weaker than initially thought, making the winter forecast for the Northern Hemisphere very uncertain.
Problems with the 2024 winter forecast are making it harder for traders to make decisions, according to Bloomberg, raising the possibility of a spike in energy and food prices in 2025.
When forecasters release their winter 2024 predictions, they often mention the presence of La Nina. La Nina typically brings colder weather to Japan and the Pacific Northwest of the United States and milder weather to the more populated parts of the East Coast of the United States. But with La Nina expected to weaken, other weather patterns are likely to influence the winter weather.
The model expected to play a bigger role this winter is the North Atlantic Oscillation (NOA) — a shift between high and low pressure near Greenland. When NOA is positive, cold spells in North America are typically brief. However, if NOA turns negative, frigid temperatures persist on the East Coast of the United States.
Another factor is the Madden-Julian Oscillation, a wave of weather that originates in the Indian Ocean and travels around the world. The Madden-Julian Oscillation can cause cold air to be pushed down from the Arctic or bring temperate air out of the Pacific.
In addition, winter 2024 may be affected by the polar vortex - large masses of very cold air in the Arctic, once erupted, have the ability to cause temperatures to drop sharply in a short time.
When affected by a polar vortex, bone-chilling air flows southward into North America, Asia or Europe. In February 2021, a polar vortex-driven winter storm killed more than 200 people across Texas and elsewhere in the United States.
This winter’s cold snap may not last long, but there are signs that the drop in temperatures in the coming months will have an impact, said Judah Cohen, a scientist at the National Institute for Atmospheric and Environmental Research.
Matt Rogers, president of commercial forecasting firm Commodity Weather Group, said this winter will be colder than last year, though still warmer than the 10-year average.
Goldman Sachs analysts led by Samantha Dart said in a note to clients late last month that “early winter weather was colder than average” and “this winter looks set to be significantly colder than a year ago, adding to the expected surge in heating demand.”
Europe is in the midst of what is expected to be its coldest winter since the Russia-Ukraine conflict. By contrast, large swaths of Asia from the Indian Ocean to the Western Pacific, including parts of southern, southeastern and eastern Asia, are expected to see milder winter weather, the Japan Meteorological Agency’s Tokyo Climate Center predicted in October.
In China, temperatures are expected to be above average in most areas across the country, including up to 2 degrees Celsius above normal in some provinces along the east coast and further inland, the National Climate Center of the China Meteorological Administration said. Temperatures could be colder in some places, including northwestern Heilongjiang and northeastern Inner Mongolia.
