The Atlantic hurricane season will officially begin on June 1, and forecasters are concerned that this year's hurricane season could look like 2024, one of the most intense and damaging seasons.
One of the most important factors affecting storm formation in 2025 is high sea temperatures - the source of energy for storms.
Crieswater temperatures across much of the Atlantic are above average for this time of year. While not as hot as last year or 2023, it is still significantly above average," said AccuWeather's top hurricane expert Alex DaSilva.
For most of the season, sea temperatures are expected to remain high, allowing for strong intensifications.
The phenomenon of rapidly intensifying storms, which means a significant rate of intensification in a short time, is likely to continue to be a notable story this year, as sea surface temperatures and ocean heat content (OHC) in most areas are forecast to exceed normal levels, said Mr. DaSilva.
The OHC not only measures the temperature of the ocean but also assesses the depth of the warm water layer. A layer of deep hot water provides more energy for the storm than a layer of shallow hot water near the surface.
The worrying trend in recent years is that storms absorb heat from unusually warm ocean waters and rapidly intensify before making landfall.
During the 2022 hurricane season, Ian increased from Category 3 to Category 5 in a very short time as it approached Florida, USA, causing storm surge to be extremely dangerous, with water levels exceeding single-story houses in coastal areas.
Sea temperatures near the equator in the eastern Pacific are also a factor to consider, as this area could lead to La Nina or El Nino. Although this is a phenomenon that occurs in the Pacific, it has a wide range of impacts, which can increase or inhibit storm activity in the Atlantic.
There will be no obvious La Nina or El Nino in the first half of the season, but in September, October or November, when La Nina may return. If the trend of moving to La Nina occurs at the end of the season, we can record a period of intense storms at the end of the season, similar to last year, Da silva said.
AccuWeather forecasts that in 2025, 13 to 18 named storms could be recorded, including 7 to 10 hurricanes, 3 to 5 major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher, and 3 to 6 of which directly affect the United States. Da Silva added that there is a 20% chance of more than 18 named storms this year.
DaSilva noted that this year's hurricane season could start early, with favorable conditions for the storm to form as early as June. There may be a lull in the early season, but a severe storm could be noted later in the year, similar to last year when 13 of the 18 named storms appeared between September and mid-November. Typically, the peak of the storm season falls on September 10.
