The early season hurricane forecast predicts that the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season will have an above-average number of storms. However, the season officially began on June 1, but so far no storms have been recorded.
The exact date of the first storm to form in the Atlantic may change. In the past 2 decades, nearly half of the years where storm No. 1 occurred on June 1.
However, Typhoon No. 1 typically forms around June 20, as last year's typhoon Alberto on June 19. Even in the 2009 typhoon season, it was not until August 11 that Hurricane No. 1 Ana appeared.
However, there is usually a typhoon before the end of June. But this year, according to Phil Klotzbach, a hurricane expert at Colorado State University, the timing of the first storm of the season is still unclear.
There are a number of reasons for this phenomenon:
A tropical storm is named after its sustained winds of about 63 km/h and becomes a Category 1 hurricane with winds of about 119 km/h.
An important factor in the formation of storms is warm ocean waters, around 27 degrees Celsius or more. According to weather forecaster Jason Dunion from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), many areas in the Atlantic have yet to reach this temperature threshold.
The sea is still warming but it is still slightly colder than last year, so record temperatures have not been recorded, said Mr. Dunion. Last year, sea surface temperatures hit record highs, increasing the likelihood of rapidly intensifying storms, causing severe devastation.
Another factor is Sahara dust from North Africa, which can fly far across the Atlantic, forming a layer of dry air up high, curbing storm formation.
This week, a large stretch of dust has spread from the central Atlantic to the Caribbean. Dust is making much of the Atlantic Ocean currently unfavorable for storms to form.
Dr. Klotzbach also said that wind shear is hindering storm formation in the Gulf of Mexico, which is often the starting point for storms at this time of season. Wind shear is a change in wind speed and direction according to altitude, capable of dissolving the forming storms.
Dr. Klotzbach's forecast team at Colorado State University also predicted that the 2025 hurricane season could have an above-average number of storms. However, if the wind shear continues for a few more weeks, his team may adjust down significantly and predict.
An Atlantic hurricane season typically has about 14 named storms. NOAA predicts 13 to 19 storms this year, while Colorado State University forecasts 17 storms.
Meanwhile, in the East Pacific, the hurricane season starts on May 15 and usually has storms earlier than the Atlantic, the 2025 hurricane season is quite active. Three storms have formed off the west coast of North America: Alvin, Barbara and Cosme. Both Atlantic and East Pacific hurricane seasons last until November 30.
