According to the National Interest, the US and Russia are quietly resuming negotiations on gas projects, including the ability to restore the Nord Stream 2, opening new scenarios that can vibrate the gas market and the world.
Under President Donald Trump's first term, the United States had strongly opposed Russian gas: blocking Nord Stream 2, promoting US LNG exports in the name of "free gas", and putting pressure on Europe to decrease depends on Russia.
After the conflict in Ukraine, Washington banned the Russian LNG, imposing sanctions on Arctic gas projects such as Arctic LNG 2, Portovaya and Versotsk LNG. As a result, most of these projects have to stop operating, only Sakhalin-2 and Yamal LNG operate moderately.
However, the second term of President Donald Trump marked a remarkable turning point: The discussions between US -Russia officials were placing on the table of cooperation to sell Russian gas to Europe, reviving Nord Stream 2 and even cooperating in Arctic gas projects - what was once considered impossible. Although there are still many doubts about the final result, it is clear that the "gas game" is opening up unpredictable variables.
For Russia, Nord Stream is not only a pipeline but a symbol of the ambition to become European energy power. The restoration of Nord Stream or increasing gas exports will be considered by the Kremlin as a political victory against the West. Meanwhile, the US - with the advantage of the expanded LNG market - benefits from maintaining pressure on Russian gas to dominate the European market.
But which option for Washington?
Increasing the sanctions of Russia will help the US expand the LNG market share but push tensions with Russia to high.
Loasing punishment can help stabilize energy prices in Europe, but it will cause American manufacturers to undergo great competitive pressure.
Maintaining the status quo is the safest way but does not create political or economic breakthroughs.
Regarding air pipelines, routes like through Finland or Poland almost no door returns due to political barriers. Turkstream is the only option to operate, but it is easy to become the target if the tension escalates.
Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 were damaged, only one unused branch, and wanted to restore to overcome both technical and legal challenges.
A minimum air transfer agreement through Ukraine may be a possible balance: both maintaining Russia's influence, and not damaging the US export benefits, ensuring energy security for Central Europe.
With 3 directions: Ensuring domestic energy prices, expanding the LNG market share and seeking diplomatic breakthroughs, it is unclear what direction Mr. Trump will choose.
Meanwhile, Russia is skillfully shifting the focus of negotiations from Ukrainian conflict to economic cooperation with the US, including rare and arctic soil.
The results are still open. But what is certain is that any change in the Russian gas area and the revival of Nord Stream will create a domino effect, shape the flow of energy, investment and balance of global power.
