In early 2025, the role of Russian gas in Europe almost touched the bottom of history. The Yamal route through Poland was stopped by Warsaw, the transshipment agreement with Ukraine expired and most of the Nord Stream gas pipeline system was destroyed after a series of mysterious explosions in 2022, only a available branch of Nord Stream 2 was not completely destroyed.
From the position of exporting up to 157 billion m3 of gas to Europe in 2021, equivalent to 1,600 LNG trains, Russian Petroleum Group Gazprom only sold 54 billion m3 in 2024, of which 17 billion m3 was through Ukraine, which was now locked.
A strange turning point that happened earlier this year, when the Swiss court was handling the bankruptcy of Nord Stream 2 Ag suddenly decided to postpone the liquidation procedure until May.
According to Euractive, the Court cited the possibility of "the company's economic value significantly changed" by the US new government under President Donald Trump and the leadership change in Germany.
Shortly thereafter, the Kremlin hinted that they "would be interested in" if the US forced Europe to buy Russian gas. And there is no shortage of American investors who are keeping an eye on the dollar pipes that are abandoned at the bottom of the Baltic sea.
In Germany, while most of the parties remain silent, some prominent voices have begun to reveal the possibility of "revival" Nord Stream. Thomas Bareiß - a former senior official of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) - said, "In peace, gas can flow again, this time is under the control of the United States."
However, most of the German owners are still cautious. Social Democratic Party (SPD) and German Industry Federation (BDI) declined to comment.
However, Susanne Nies - Energy expert at the Helmholtz Zentrum Research Institute - warned: "The situation can change very quickly."
Nies stated two scenarios that could change the game.
Firstly, the United States and Gazprom swapped gas at the Russian - Ukrainian border, then re -identified the US gas to transship through the Ukraine system.
Second, direct reboot Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2, if peace is set.
It is worth mentioning that, according to the new rules of the European Union (EU), the European Commission now has the right to block the border gas burning agreements. Therefore, the final decision is not only in Berlin but also on the nod or a shaking head from Brussels.
"The European Commission is the one who holds the key card.
The technique of restoring Nord Stream is difficult but feasible. Van Den Beukel, an expert at the Dutch HCSS Institute, estimated repair costs ranging from 600 million to 1 billion euros.
However, who will suffer? And who will dare to buy?
After a series of contract disputes, litigation and Gazprom refusing to pay under the international arbitration, the confidence between European and Russian energy companies collapsed.
It is difficult for any side in Europe to dare to sign a long-term contract with Gazprom at this time, said Jack Sharples, an expert from the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.
Immediately after the Ukrainian conflict broke out in 2022, the Russian Ambassador to the EU once called Nord Stream pipes "the princess sleeping in the Baltic beach". Many people believe that it was just aimless words, until the Swiss court delayed the liquidation of Nord Stream 2 Ag.
Now, the prospect of "beauty" awakens is no longer a fiction, but a real geopolitical game.
