The latest storm news on the morning of July 5th said that Super Typhoon Ba Vi has weakened to level 4 according to the classification scale of the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) due to entering the storm eye replacement cycle (EWRC). However, this is forecast to be only a temporary weakening process.
The storm eye replacement cycle usually appears in fully developed storms and Ba Vi is no exception. After this process ends, the storm is likely to strengthen again and expand its scope of impact, because environmental conditions are still very favorable. According to forecasts, Ba Vi may return to level 5 intensity on July 5 as it moves towards the Mariana Islands.
JTWC said that the super typhoon is 546km from the Guam naval base and is moving west at a speed of 11 km/h in the past 6 hours.
Typhoon bulletin on the morning of June 5 from the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) clearly stated that super typhoon Ba Vi is 2,710km east of Eastern Visayas, Philippines. The typhoon is currently having winds of 196 km/h, gusts of up to 240 km/h and is moving west at a speed of 15 km/h.
Meanwhile, according to the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), Super Typhoon Ba Vi has sustained winds of 198 km/h, maximum gusts of 270 km/h and moves west at a speed of 10 km/h.
Regarding the direction, Super Typhoon Ba Vi is starting to move to the northwest, as the subtropical high pressure adjusts its position and gradually recedes east under the impact of a long wave trench (i.e., a low pressure area stretching and winding in the current of the upper atmosphere) passing through China.
People in Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands are advised to urgently complete disaster prevention measures, because Ba Vi is likely to carry extremely strong winds with great destructive power.
After passing through Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands, Super Typhoon Ba Vi is forecast to continue moving northwest before entering the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). During this process, the latest super typhoon of the 2026 typhoon season may cause bad weather for northern Luzon Island (Philippines), Taiwan (China) and Okinawa (Japan).
However, the path of the super typhoon after this period is still uncertain. Forecasters say more time and data are needed to accurately determine the final path of Super Typhoon Ba Vi.
Current typhoon forecasts show that Super Typhoon Ba Vi tends to bend northward before reaching Luzon, so the possibility of directly making landfall on most of the Philippines' territory is currently not high.
The Taiwan (China) Meteorological Administration (CWA) said that super typhoon Ba Vi is expected to begin to significantly impact the weather on the island from July 9 when the outside clouds of the typhoon may carry rain and reduce temperatures in many areas. Some forecast models indicate that Ba Vi's impact on Taiwan (China) may be strongest on July 10 and 11.
