According to the latest forecast from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), La Nina is quickly ending, paving the way for a strong, even super El Nino wave that may form in the summer of 2026 and extend to 2027.
Forecasters estimate 62% chance of El Nino appearing in the period from June to August. This phenomenon occurs when the signal wind in the Pacific weakens, allowing a large mass of warm water to move from the western Pacific east, near the Americas.
El Nino often causes the global average temperature to rise sharply. In years of strong El Nino activity, the Earth often records record high temperatures.
According to climate scientist Daniel Swain of NOAA, El Nino is like a mechanism of "heat release" accumulating in the ocean.
It helps bring the heat'locked' in the deep water layer of the ocean back to the surface and atmosphere," he explained.
This mechanism was clearly seen in the period 2023-2024, when strong El Nino contributed to pushing global temperatures to unprecedented levels. 2023 became the hottest year ever recorded, before this record continued to be surpassed in 2024.
Scientist Zeke Hausfather of NOAA believes that if El Nino strongly forms in 2026, it could push global temperatures higher and make 2027 at risk of becoming the hottest year in history after 2024.
However, experts emphasize that El Nino is only part of a larger picture. The main reason for global warming is still greenhouse gas emissions from burning fossil fuels.
In addition to increasing temperatures, El Nino also causes weather disruptions in many areas.
In the US, the southern region tends to have more rain and cooler temperatures, which may help reduce drought and the risk of forest fires. However, experts warn that a favorable rainy season may also be difficult to completely solve the serious water shortage in the southwest of the country.
Meanwhile, El Nino often reduces the number of storms forming in the Atlantic, but this does not mean that the storm season will be completely safe. Just one major storm making landfall can cause catastrophic damage.
Scientists believe that the most worrying impact of El Nino lies in the extreme change of weather patterns. As the ocean and atmosphere accumulate more energy, the world may witness more intense heavy rain, more severe drought and worsening forest fires.
According to the Vietnam National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, El Nino years often cause temperatures in Vietnam to rise, increasing prolonged heat waves.
Some El Nino years in the past have caused severe saltwater intrusion in the Mekong Delta.
El Nino may reduce the number of storms in the East Sea but increase the risk of localized extreme rains, making weather forecasts more difficult.
