China's population has decreased for the fourth consecutive year in 2025 as the number of newborns reaches a record low.
According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China, the total population decreased by 3.39 million people, to about 1.405 billion people, a faster decrease than the previous year. The number of births decreased to 7.92 million, 17% lower than in 2024, while the number of deaths increased to 11.31 million.
The birth rate reached 5.63 per 1,000 people, while the mortality rate was 8.04 per 1,000 people, the highest since 1968.
Mr. Yi Fuxian, a demographer at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, said that the number of children born in 2025 is equivalent to 1738, when China's population was only about 150 million people.
Data shows that about 23% of China's population is currently over 60 years old. It is predicted that by 2035, this age group will reach 400 million people, equivalent to the total population of the US and Italy combined.
The departure of hundreds of millions of workers from the job market takes place in the context of a high pension budget pressure. China has raised the retirement age, with men working up to 63 years old and women up to 58 years old.
The number of marriages in China decreased sharply in 2024, to more than 6.1 million couples, the largest decrease ever recorded. Marriage is considered an important indicator of the birth trend.
A policy change in 2025 allowing couples to register marriage in any locality is expected to have a short-term effect. In the third quarter of 2025, the number of marriages increased by 22.5% compared to the same period.
The Chinese government is promoting a positive view on marriage and childbirth to reduce the prolonged impact of the one-child policy that was applied in the period 1980 - 2015.
The rapid urbanization process, with an urban population rate of 68% in 2025, has increased childcare costs and exacerbated demographic challenges.
Population planning becomes the focus of economic strategy. Beijing plans to spend about 180 billion yuan (25.8 billion USD) on birth support measures, including child benefits and commitments to free medical expenses for women during pregnancy, including in vitro fertilization, from 2026.
China currently has a birth rate of about 1 child per woman, much lower than the replacement level of 2.1.
