Most experts believe that the Nord Stream 2 project has had problems from the beginning. Germany does not need Nord Stream 2 to secure gas supplies. The existing routes and LNG capacity are sufficient, while demand is forecast to be inflated. From the beginning, this project created dependence, not security, even though Eastern Europe and the US have issued clear warnings, said Professor Claudia kemfert of DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Studies.
Although gas was not transported through the Nord Stream system at the time of the sabotage in September 2022, the impact was still huge. "The explosions suddenly blocked the project, making the restoration extremely expensive. Previously, just waiting for favorable conditions to reopen - that was a political choice. Now, it is also an economic problem" - expert Susanne Nies from Helmholtz Zentrum Berlin said.
After nearly two years of investigating the Nord Stream explosion, Germany has issued at least six arrest warrants in Europe. The two Nord Stream suspects were quickly arrested, but extradition to Germany is much more complicated. Last week, the Italian Supreme Court rejected the final appeal of suspect Serhii Kuznietsov, 49, a Ukrainian. He will be extradited to Germany.
On the contrary, on October 17, the Polish court rejected the extradition request for another important suspect: Volodymyr Zhuravlov.
This verdict appeared at a sensitive time. poles refusal will certainly make it difficult for Poland-Germanys bilateral relations, especially ahead of an intergovernmental meeting, which will discuss energy issues, said Agnieszka Loskot-Strachota at the Eastern Europe Research Center in Warsaw.
When the trial of suspect Zhuravlov ends, attention will be focused on extradition and possibly the trial of Kuznetsov, along with the fate of the remaining four defendants in the Nord Stream sabotage case.
The media said that with the slow processing speed of the German judicial system, especially in complex cases, the final conclusions of the case are expected to be available in the long term.
However, Loskot-Strachota believes that is beneficial for all parties. Any conclusion has far-reaching political consequences for Europe and for Germany. It is likely that conclusion will decide Nord Stream's future, if that future still exists," she said.
Three of the four branches of Nord Stream and Nord Stream 2 have ended. After the explosions and fundamental policy changes on reducing dependence on Russian gas, Nord Stream will not be repaired or revived," Professor kemfert affirmed.
However, rumors about the possibility of a revival of Nord Stream have appeared since spring, after the news that an American businessman had submitted a dossier to the US government to request permission to buy the Nord Stream 2 operator company. The deal went wrong, but Loskot-Strachota noted that the political landscape could change very quickly: What today seems impossible could be possible again tomorrow.
As long as there is no final decision or physical action, which means deeper destruction or complete closure of the entire pipeline branch and there is no clear political or legal statement from Germany that the pipeline will never be used again, there is no end in sight. We are not in a situation where we can confirm that it will never happen," she said.
