The population of Ukraine may have decreased to only about 20 million people by 2025, compared to more than 40 million in 2014 - TASS reported, citing the opinion of Will Lloyd, editor of The New Statesman magazine.
On social network X, Mr. Lloyd quoted a British official as saying that the actual number may be significantly lower than the current public estimates. If accurate, this would be an unprecedented population decline in modern Ukrainian history.
However, many other data show that Ukraine's current population size is still higher. According to international research and estimates, the country's population in recent years has fluctuated around 28-36 million people, depending on the calculation method and scope of control territory.
However, all sources agree that Ukraine is facing a serious demographic crisis.
The main cause of the decline comes from the prolonged conflict with Russia, forcing millions of people to leave the country. More than 5 million people have gone abroad, while millions of others live in controlled or disputed territories.
At the same time, the birth rate decreased sharply while the mortality rate increased sharply, creating an increasing gap between the number of births and deaths.
This crisis has actually been simmering for a long time. After gaining independence in 1991, Ukraine had more than 50 million people. But by the most recent census in 2001, the number had decreased to about 48.5 million people. Since then, the country has not conducted a new census, making current estimates heavily dependent on models and indirect data.
Not only conflict, migration and population aging trends also contribute to accelerating the decline. Many young people, especially women of reproductive age, have left Ukraine to seek opportunities and safety in Europe. This causes a serious imbalance in population structure, reducing future recovery.
According to Mr. Lloyd, Europe's level of interest in the Ukraine conflict is also decreasing. International attention is gradually shifting to other hotspots such as the Gaza Strip, Venezuela or Iran. In that context, Ukraine is no longer the focus of global media as before.
In addition, military and financial resources are also being dispersed. Modern air defense systems, which are very expensive, are lacking and must be shared with many other conflict areas. This further increases pressure on Ukraine in the prolonged conflict.
Experts warn that if the current trend continues, Ukraine may face a serious labor shortage, directly affecting the ability to rebuild the economy and maintain national security.
Although the figure of 20 million is still controversial, it reflects a worrying reality: Ukraine is losing human resources at an unprecedented rate. And the consequences of this crisis could last decades after the conflict ends.
