Bloomberg said that the Ukrainian army is facing many challenges: lack of manpower, uncertainty about supplies from the US and its allies, and at the same time having to fight against strong Russian attacks in eastern Ukraine.
In Kursk, where Ukraine has captured significant territory, Ukrainian troops are holding their ground but face the risk of being pushed back. US officials say Russia could focus its efforts on retaking the area as early as next month. If they do not withdraw in time, Ukrainian forces risk being completely surrounded before spring.
Kursk province plays an important role for Ukraine, expected to become a "card" in the ceasefire negotiations. However, with the current advantage on the battlefield, Russia seems to want to prolong the negotiation time to regain more territory before the combat demarcation line is fixed.
A US official revealed that Ukraine's initial goal was not to hold Kursk for a long time but to cause a strategic surprise and weaken the Russian forces. The withdrawal, if carried out in time, could still be considered a tactical victory.
Two other US officials expressed hope that President Volodymyr Zelensky would soon order a withdrawal of troops from Kursk to avoid major losses of life and equipment.
The Kursk campaign had consequences for both Ukraine and Russia. However, despite the losses, Russia maintained the ability to replenish its forces and launch effective counterattacks. The immediate goal was to control key roads and towns in Kursk and force Ukraine to withdraw.
Meanwhile, Russia is making significant progress in eastern Ukraine, moving towards the town of Pokrovsk, a key logistics hub. If Russia captures Pokrovsk, Ukrainian forces will face a situation where they will be forced to retreat or be surrounded.
The battle for Kursk is important not only militarily but also politically. Whether Ukraine can hold on or be forced to retreat from Kursk will have a major impact on the possibility of future negotiations.
As winter passes, the course of the fighting in Kursk and eastern Ukraine will play a decisive role in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the future of peace negotiations.
