Bloomberg said that the Ukrainian army is facing many challenges: lack of manpower, uncertainty about supply from the US and its allies, and having to fight against strong Russian attacks in eastern Ukraine.
In Kursk - an area where Ukraine has captured a significant amount of territory, the Ukrainian army is trying to hold its position but is facing the risk of being pushed back. US officials say Russia could focus on reclaiming the region as early as next month. If it does not withdraw in time, Ukrainian forces risk being completely surrounded before spring.
Kursk region plays an important role for Ukraine, expected to become a " card" in ceasefire negotiations. However, with the current advantage on the battlefield, Russia seems to be looking to extend the negotiation time to regain more territory before the front line is fixed.
A US official revealed that Ukraine's initial goal was not to keep Kursk for a long time but to cause a strategic surprise, weakening Russian forces. The withdrawal, if carried out in time, can still be considered a tactical victory.
Two other US officials expressed hope that President Volodymyr Zelensky would soon order a withdrawal from Kursk to avoid major losses in human lives and equipment.
The operation in Kursk has left consequences for both Ukraine and Russia. However, despite the losses, Russia has maintained the ability to supplement forces to conduct effective counterattacks. The immediate goal is to control important routes and towns in Kursk, forcing Ukraine to withdraw its troops.
At the same time, Russia is making significant progress in eastern Ukraine, towards the town of Pokrovsk - an important logistics center. If Russia captures Pokrovsk, Ukrainian forces will face a forced withdrawal or surrounding.
The battle for Kursk is important not only military but also politically. Whether Ukraine can hold on or be forced to retreat from Kursk will greatly affect the possibility of future negotiations.
As winter passes, the developments of the war in Kursk and eastern Ukraine will play a decisive role in the situation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the future of peace negotiations.
