The report published on December 10 by the Kiel Institute (Germany) shows that European military aid to Ukraine increased slightly to 4.24 billion euros in the September-October period, from 3.27 billion euros in July-August.
However, this figure is still much lower than the average of 9.9 billion euros provided by Europe in the previous 4 months.
While the average annual allocation for the period 2022 - 2024 is about 41.6 billion euros (including Europe, the US and other donors), the total allocation so far in 2025 is only 32.5 billion euros.
To reach the average of previous years, donors need to add 9.1 billion euros from now until the end of the year, equivalent to more than double the average allocation rate in recent months.
Professor Christoph Trebesch, head of the Ukrainian aid monitoring team at the Kiel Institute, said that Europe could find it difficult to completely make up for the gap in the US, as the strong aid in the first half of 2025 has clearly declined.
He warned that if the small-duty supply rate continues, 2025 could be the year that Europe allocates the lowest military aid to Ukraine since Russia launched its military campaign in 2022.
Although Europe's total military aid has stagnated, the trend between major economies is significantly different.
France, Germany and the UK have increased their aid significantly compared to the 2022 - 2024 period: Germany has almost tripled its monthly allocation; France and the UK have all more than doubled.
However, according to the GDP ratio in 2021, all three are still far behind the Nordic group of countries including Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden. To reach Nordic levels, major European economies will have to make a significant contribution.
The contrast with Italy and Spain is even more obvious: Both will not increase military aid in 2025. Italy even reduced 15% compared to the low capital level for the period 2022 - 2024, while Spain has not recorded any new military aid this year.
