According to VNA, Vietnam's economic growth forecast is maintained at 7.2% for 2026 and 7.0% for 2027. These are among the highest figures in the developing Asia-Pacific region. This positive forecast reflects the sustainable growth momentum of the manufacturing sector, sustainable export and investment activities along with stable domestic demand. Inflation is forecast to increase from 3.3% in 2025 to 4% this year, before cooling down to 3.8% next year.
Vietnam's economy is one of the bright spots in the latest ADB report, as economic growth in the developing Asia and Pacific region has been adjusted down to 4.9% in 2026, lower than the growth rate of 5.5% in 2025 and down 0.2 percentage points compared to forecasts made in April.
According to the ADO July report, prolonged disruptions in the energy market due to conflicts in the Middle East are putting heavier pressure than expected on the region's outlook. However, the growth forecast for 2027 remains unchanged at 5.1%, reflecting the recovery potential of economic activities as these pressures subside.
The report predicts that the instability in the global energy market will only cool down gradually, despite the fact that the US and Iran reached a temporary agreement in June.
The July ADO report was released before the recent escalating tensions between the US and Iran appeared. In the context of widespread negative impacts from the energy sector to fertilizers, commodity prices and supply chains, ADB forecasts that inflationary pressure may continue to extend.
Inflation in the region this year is forecast at 4.3%, higher than the 3% of 2025 and up 0.7 percentage points compared to the forecast given in April. Meanwhile, the inflation forecast for 2027 remains at 3.4%.
Commenting on this issue, ADB's chief economist, Mr. Albert Park, emphasized that although the economic growth momentum in the Asia-Pacific region is still developing sustainably, the persistent barriers caused by the Middle East conflict require countries to have a careful policy balance between supporting growth and curbing inflation.
The ADO July report also warned that the risk of conflict escalating again and prolonged geopolitical instability are still core risks for the region's economic growth prospects. These factors could further tighten the energy market, while exacerbating inflationary and external pressures.
In addition, tighter global financial conditions also create more risks, pushing up government bond yields and borrowing costs, while budget deficits are forecast to expand in some economies.
Higher tariffs and increased instability in trade policy also risk weighing on economic activities, while escalating fertilizer prices continue to threaten agricultural output and food security.
Except for the developing East Asia region, the growth forecast for 2026 for most other sub-regions has been lowered. In which, the forecast for China remained unchanged at 4.6% for 2026 and 4.5% for 2027 thanks to strong export activities and investment capital in infrastructure.
Conversely, India's growth forecast was adjusted down to 6.6% this year due to rising energy costs eroding domestic demand, but was maintained at 7.3% next year.
The growth prospects of Southeast Asia and the Pacific were also adjusted downwards, reflecting the weakening of domestic demand and the tourism industry, accompanied by increased inflation and escalating import costs.
