The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) storm/low pressure forecast bulletin said that during the week of October 9-15, 2024, a low pressure is expected to appear in the northeast of the Philippines' Tropical Cyclone Information Domain (TCID).
The center of the low pressure is expected to be located at about 25 degrees north latitude and 150 degrees east longitude. The low pressure is likely to strengthen into a moderate to strong storm.
Weather forecast models show that during the week of October 16-22, 2024, a low pressure area is expected to appear in the southeast of the Philippine forecast area (PAR) and the tropical cyclone advisory area (TCAD).
The center of the low pressure is located at about 7 degrees north latitude and 140 degrees east longitude. The low pressure is unlikely to strengthen into a storm.
PAGASA's weather forecast at 3:00 a.m. on October 10, 2024 shows that there is currently no low pressure near the Philippines.
On October 9, the low pressure near the East Sea dissipated and the tropical depression outside the PAR was no longer within the Philippines' observation area.
The Philippines has now ended the southwest monsoon period and entered the northeast monsoon period.
PAGASA is also monitoring the possibility of La Nina developing in the tropical Pacific. PAGASA previously said there is a 71% chance of La Nina forming in September-November 2024 and potentially lasting until January-March 2025.
For the Philippines, La Nina could bring more rain and more storms. The Philippines has been hit by 10 storms so far in the 2024 typhoon season.
Previously, PAGASA forecasted four to seven storms to form within or enter PAR in the fourth quarter of 2024.
2 or 3 storms are forecast in October and 1 or 2 storms in November and December.
Most of the typhoons in October make landfall in Luzon while those in November and December mainly hit Bicol, Eastern Visayas and Eastern Mindanao.
Meanwhile, according to the forecast of thunderstorms, tornadoes and strong gusts of wind at sea from the Vietnam National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, on October 10, the eastern sea area of the northern East Sea and the southern East Sea (including the waters of the Truong Sa archipelago), the sea area from Ca Mau to Kien Giang and the Gulf of Thailand will have scattered showers and thunderstorms. During thunderstorms, there is a possibility of tornadoes and strong gusts of wind of level 7-8.
All vessels operating in the above areas are at risk of being affected by tornadoes and strong gusts of wind.
