The storm/low pressure forecast bulletin of the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said that during the week from October 9-15, 2024, a low pressure is expected to appear in the northeast of the typhoon information area (TCID - Tropical Cyclone Information Domain) of the Philippines.
The center of the low pressure is expected to be around 25 degrees north latitude, 150 degrees east longitude. The low pressure is likely to strengthen into a moderate to moderate storm.
Weather forecast models show that during the week of October 16-22, 2024, a low pressure is expected to appear southeast of the Philippine Forecast Area (PAR) and the Typhoon Warning Area (TCAD-Tropical Cyclone Advisory Domain).
The center of the low pressure is located at about 7 degrees north latitude, 140 degrees east longitude. The low pressure is unlikely to strengthen into a storm.
PAGASA's weather forecast at 3:00 a.m. on October 10, 2024 shows that there is currently no low pressure near the Philippines.
On October 9, the low pressure near the East Sea has dissipated and the tropical depression outside the PAR is no longer within the Philippine observation area.
The Philippines has now ended the southwest wind phase and entered the northeast wind phase.
PAGASA is also monitoring the possibility of La Nina developing in the tropical Pacific. PAGASA previously said there was a 50% chance of La Nina forming in September-November 2024 and is likely to last until January-February 2025.
For the Philippines, La Nina could bring more rain and more typhoons. The Philippines has been affected by 10 typhoons in the 2024 typhoon season so far.
Previously, PAGASA forecasted that 4 to 7 storms will form within or enter PAR in the fourth quarter of 2024.
Two or three storms are expected in October and one or two in November and December.
Most typhoons in October hit Luzon while typhoons in November and December mainly hit Bicol, Eastern Visayas and Eastern Mindanao.
Meanwhile, according to the forecast bulletin of thunderstorms, tornadoes and strong winds at sea of the Vietnam National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, on October 10, the eastern sea area of the northern East Sea and the southern East Sea (including the Truong Sa archipelago), the sea area from Ca Mau to Kien Giang and the Gulf of Thailand will have scattered showers and thunderstorms. During thunderstorms, there is a possibility of tornadoes and strong gusts of wind of level 7-8.
All ships operating in the above areas are at risk of being affected by tornadoes and strong gusts of wind.
