Domestic coffee prices
The domestic coffee market in the trading session on December 11, 2025 recorded widespread green in key Central Highlands growing areas.
After slight fluctuations, the increase has returned more clearly when localities simultaneously adjusted the increase by 500 to 600 VND/kg compared to the previous trading session.
The current average price has reached 101,700 VND/kg. In Dak Lak province, the purchase price increased by 500 VND, listed at 101,800 VND/kg.
Similarly, in Gia Lai, coffee prices also increased by 500 VND, trading around 101,300 VND/kg.
Lam Dong - a growing area with typically lower prices - today recorded the strongest increase of 600 VND, bringing the price to 101,300 VND/kg, equal to the gap with Gia Lai.
Notably, Dak Nong (old) continues to be the leading locality in terms of purchasing prices. With an increase of 500 VND, coffee prices here have reached 102,000 VND/kg.
World coffee prices
In contrast to the steady increase in the domestic market, the world coffee market on December 11, 2025 had mixed developments between the two exchanges London and New York, reflecting the differentiation of factors affecting the supply and demand of each type of grain.
On the London Stock Exchange, Robusta coffee futures for delivery in January 2026 were under slight downward pressure, closing the session at 4,221 USD/ton, down 7 USD (equivalent to 0.16%). However, longer terms such as March, May and July 2026 will still remain green, with a common increase of about 29 - 31 USD/ton.
Meanwhile, the New York Stock Exchange witnessed a strong breakthrough in Arabica coffee. The December 2025 delivery term skyrocketed by 6.60 cents, reaching 400.80 cents/lb (up 1.67%). The March 2026 delivery period also recorded an increase of 3.55 cents, closing at 372.30 cents/lb. This contrast shows that cash flow is tending to shift to the New York Stock Exchange amid new concerns about supply from South America.
Coffee price assessment and forecast
The coffee market is being strongly dominated by conflicting information from the world's two largest coffee "hamlets", Brazil and Vietnam.
Arabica's rally was reinforced by falling export data from Brazil. The Association of Brazilian Coffee Exporters (Cecafe) reported that the country's green coffee exports in November fell by 27% compared to the same period last year, reaching only 3.3 million bags.
In addition, dry weather in Minas Gerais - Brazil's largest Arabica growing region - is raising concerns about upcoming crop yields. The amount of rain here last week only reached 11mm, equivalent to 17% of the historical average, creating momentum to support price increases.
On the contrary, Robusta prices are under pressure to adjust due to the abundant supply from Vietnam flowing into the market. Data from the Statistics Office (Ministry of Finance) shows that Vietnam's coffee exports in November increased by 39% over the same period, reaching 88,000 tons. Accumulated in 11 months, exports increased by 14.8%. Vietnam's 2025-2026 crop output is forecast to increase by about 6-10%, reaching the highest level in the past 4 years, which is a factor that holds back the increase in Robusta prices in the short term.
In terms of policy, the European Parliament (EP)'s approval of a further implementation of the EUDR has somewhat relieved concerns about supply chain disruption, helping coffee flows into the EU to remain stable. However, inventory on the ICE floor, especially Robusta, is still at a record low (a 11.5 month low), which will be a fundamental factor to prevent prices from falling sharply despite the existing new sales pressure.
