Domestic coffee prices
The domestic coffee market this morning recorded green at key growing areas after the previous adjustment session.
According to records, the price of green coffee beans in the Central Highlands provinces today increased by an average of 200 - 300 VND/kg compared to yesterday. Currently, the average purchase price has stabilized firmly at VND101,000/kg.
Specifically, in the old Dak Nong province, coffee prices recorded the highest increase of 300 VND/kg, bringing the trading price to 101,500 VND/kg, leading the regional market. In the coffee "capital" of Dak Lak, the purchase price increased by VND 200/kg, currently listed at VND 101,300/kg.
Similarly, in Gia Lai province, dealers also adjusted the price up by VND 200/kg, trading around VND 100,800/kg.
Lam Dong province is still the locality with the lowest price in the region, but has also recorded an increase of 200 VND/kg, bringing the purchase price to 100,700 VND/kg.
World coffee prices
In the world market, green has returned on both major exchanges after strong declines at the beginning of the week.
At the end of the most recent trading session, Robusta coffee prices on the London Stock Exchange for delivery in January 2026 increased by 10 USD (equivalent to 0.24%), closing at 4,228 USD/ton. Subsequent delivery terms also recorded an increase of 7 to 17 USD/ton.
Following the same trend, Arabica coffee prices on the New York Stock Exchange for delivery in March 2026 increased by 2.55 cents (equivalent to 0.70%), to 368.75 cents/lb. Although prices fluctuated at the beginning of the session, buying pressure returned stronger towards the end of the session.
The main reason supporting this recovery comes from unfavorable weather information in Brazil. The Somar Meteorologia meteorological agency reported that Minas Gerais - Brazil's largest Arabica growing region - received just 11 mm of rainfall for the week ended December 5, a figure of just 17% of the historical average.
The situation of below-average drought is raising concerns about the next crop's productivity, thereby supporting coffee prices to increase. However, the increase was partly held back when the Brazilian Real fell to its lowest level in 1.75 months against the USD, which encouraged Brazilian producers to increase their sales to earn foreign currency.
Coffee price assessment and forecast
The coffee market is under mixed pressure between the prospect of abundant supply and a decline in inventory. In terms of downward pressure, Conab (Brazil's crop forecasting agency) has just raised its forecast for the country's total coffee output in 2025 by 2.4% to 56.54 million bags. In addition, data from the Vietnam Statistics Office shows that coffee exports in November increased by 39% over the same period, reaching 88,000 tons, signaling that supply from Vietnam is flowing strongly into the market.
Another important macro factor is the European Parliament's approval of a further year of the anti-deforestation law (EUDR). This delay helps the flow of coffee imports into the EU from regions such as Africa, Indonesia and South America not to be interrupted immediately, creating a sense of security about supply in the short term.
However, on the other hand, low inventory is a solid support for prices. Robusta inventories on the ICE floor fell to an 11.5-month low, with only 4,018 lots left on Tuesday. In the US, coffee inventories are also tightening as buyers have previously restricted imports from Brazil to avoid tariffs (though this tax has been lifted).
In the long term, supply from Vietnam is expected to continue to increase. The Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (Vicofa) believes that the output in the 2025/2026 crop year could increase by 10% if the weather is favorable.
The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) also forecasts that global output in the coming crop will increase by 2.5%, reaching a record of 178.68 million bags. Therefore, although prices have a short-term recovery due to weather, the long-term trend will still be under great pressure from the increasingly abundant supply of new crops.
