Domestic coffee prices
After two slight recovery sessions at the beginning of the week, the domestic coffee market this morning, February 11, turned down sharply, wiping out previous price increase efforts.
According to records, purchasing agents in the Central Highlands region have simultaneously adjusted down prices from 1,000 to 1,200 VND/kg, bringing the average price in the whole region deeply back to the threshold of 95,400 VND/kg. This decrease shows that the market is still in an adjustment trend and is directly affected by supply fluctuations on the international exchange.
In key localities, Dak Nong province (old) recorded a decrease of 1,000 VND, currently purchasing at 95,500 VND/kg.
Dak Lak and Gia Lai provinces also had similar decreases, bringing the price of raw coffee beans to the same level of 95,300 VND/kg.
Meanwhile, Lam Dong is the place with the strongest adjustment in the region when it decreased by 1,200 VND, currently the transaction price is only 94,000 VND/kg. The sharp price decrease right at the time near Tet is making farmers' psychology become more cautious in their sales decisions.
World coffee prices
On the international market, both futures exchanges witnessed red color covering the past session. On the New York exchange, Arabica coffee futures for March 2026 delivery fell 5.65 cents, equivalent to a decrease of 1.88%, closing at 294.20 cents/lb.
Selling pressure increased after reports showed rainfall in the Minas Gerais region of Brazil reached 72.6 mm last week, 113% higher than the historical average, helping to completely ease concerns about previous droughts.
Similarly, the London exchange also faced great pressure when the price of Robusta coffee for March 2026 delivery decreased by 91 USD, equivalent to a decrease of 2.37%, closing the session at 3.743 USD/ton. In addition to favorable weather factors from Brazil, Robusta's decline was also affected by impressive export data from Vietnam. In January, our country boosted coffee exports with a sharp increase of 38.3% compared to the same period last year, reaching about 198,000 tons. In addition, the continuous recovery of inventories on the ICE exchange in the past time is also a factor hindering the increase of both exchanges.
Market outlook
The prospect of abundant supply in the long term is the biggest barrier to current coffee prices. Brazil's Conab forecasting agency estimates that the country's coffee production in 2026 could reach a record level of 66.2 million bags, an increase of 17.2% compared to the previous year. The combination of forecasts of bumper crops in South America and abundant existing supply from Vietnam has created double pressure, causing speculative funds to continue to liquidate buy positions to take profits.
In the short term, despite some supporting signals such as Colombia's January output sharply decreasing by 34% or Brazil's exports decreasing by 42.4%, that is still not enough to reverse the market situation. It is predicted that in the coming sessions, domestic coffee prices will continue to be in a state of stalemate and find a balance point around the region of 94,000 - 95,500 VND/kg.
