Domestic coffee prices
After days of continuous sharp declines, this morning, February 9th, coffee prices in key growing areas simultaneously rebounded sharply. Agents simultaneously adjusted up by 1,000 VND/kg, helping the purchase price regain the mark of 95,000 - 96,000 VND/kg. This recovery moment brings some hope to farmers after witnessing prices "disappear" by nearly 10,000 VND compared to the historical peak last month.
Specific price movements in localities:
Dak Nong (old): Continuing to maintain the highest price in the region, coffee prices increased by 1,000 VND to 96,000 VND/kg.
Dak Lak: Recorded price of 95,880 VND/kg after adding 1,000 VND.
Gia Lai: Increased by 1,000 VND, currently purchased at 95,700 VND/kg.
Lam Dong: The increase of 1,000 VND brings the price of raw coffee beans here to 94,600 VND/kg.
World coffee prices
While domestic prices recovered according to the psychology of the beginning of the week, the international market has just closed a week of trading full of pressure with negative figures on supply and demand prospects.
New York Arabica Exchange: Closing last week's trading session at a sharp decrease of 11.85 cents, closing at 296.55 cents/lb. Arabica prices fell to a 6-month low as Conab forecasts Brazil's 2026 coffee production will soar 17.2%, reaching a record level of 66.2 million bags. In addition, the Minas Gerais region receiving abundant rainfall (reaching 117% of the historical average) also continued to put significant downward pressure on prices.
London Stock Exchange (Robusta): Closing the week at 3,755 USD/ton. Robusta is under great pressure as Vietnam boosts exports with January volume jumping 38.3% compared to the same period, reaching 198,000 tons. In addition, inventories on the ICE exchange are recovering strongly (Arabica highest for more than 3 months, Robusta highest for 2 months) which is also a factor hindering the recovery momentum of this exchange.
Market outlook
Although this morning's session had a positive upward trend, the overall picture still shows that coffee is in a deep correction trend. Brazil's expected record output and Vietnam's hot export growth are "reverse winds" preventing prices from returning to the old peak of 100,000 VND/kg. The only bright spot currently is a report from the Brazilian Ministry of Commerce showing that this country's January exports decreased by 42.4%, which may help limit the drop in Robusta prices in the short term.
