Domestic coffee prices
On October 17, coffee prices in key Central Highlands regions increased by VND900/kg, bringing the average price in the whole region to VND115,300/kg.
The strong increase occurred throughout the region: Dak Lak and Dak Nong (old) both increased by VND 1,000/kg, reaching VND 115,500/kg.
Coffee prices in Lam Dong and Gia Lai both increased by VND800/kg, respectively to VND114,500/kg and VND115,000/kg.
The return of domestic prices shows that the market has quickly ignored Arabica's decline and focused on strong buying power from the Robusta exchange.
World coffee price: Robusta breaks 1-month peak
The international coffee market has mixed developments. Robusta increased sharply, while Arabica was under selling pressure.
Robusta ( London): Sharp increase of 72 USD/ton (nearly 1.6%), closing at 4,614 USD/ton. This increase has sent Robusta to a 1-month high thanks to strong buying power.
Arabica (New York): In contrast, Arabica decreased slightly by 1.10 US cents/lb (-0.27%), closing at 393.80 US cents/lb. This price cut is due to concerns that the 50% tariff imposed on Brazil may be lifted after a meeting between the Brazilian Foreign Minister and the US Secretary of State.
Assessment and forecast
Today's strong price increase shows that the market is prioritizing the risk of Robusta supply and low inventories, despite positive news about tariffs.
Concerns about the 2026/27 crop are still a major driver, as Brazil's largest Arabica growing region has only received 48% of its historical average rainfall, threatening an important flowering period.
Arabica and Robusta inventories on ICE have fallen to their lowest level in 1.5 years and 2.75 months, respectively. This shortage has boosted purchasing activity. The forecast of the possibility of La Niña (causing droughts) increasing to 71%, also continues to support prices.
Brazil's Conab agency has cut estimated Arabica output in 2025, further reinforcing concerns about supply.
However, factors that have caused prices to decrease, putting the greatest pressure on Arabica, is the possibility of removing tariffs.
Vietnam's Robusta output in 2025/26 is forecast to increase by 6.9% and abundant rainfall in the Central Highlands is a major factor in price reduction for Robusta.
The ICO reported a slight increase in global exports of 0.2%, showing that current supply has not been completely tightened.
The short-term trend forecast is positive thanks to Robusta's momentum and weather risks. However, the market will continue to fluctuate strongly due to the conflict between rumors of Brazil's tax exemption (pulling Arabica down) and low inventory (pulling both up).
Domestic coffee prices closely follow the developments of Robusta coffee prices in the world. It is likely that domestic prices will continue to move towards the mark of VND 120,000/kg if Robusta purchasing power is maintained.
