Domestic coffee prices
The domestic coffee market this morning witnessed a sharp decline in key growing areas.
According to records, the price of green coffee beans in the Central Highlands today decreased by an average of about 2,000 VND/kg, bringing the general price level to 97,200 VND/kg.
In the coffee capital of Dak Lak, the purchase price turned down 1,900 VND, currently trading at 97,300 VND/kg.
In Lam Dong province, the recorded decrease was VND 2,000/kg, bringing the price down to VND 96,700/kg, which is also the lowest price among the localities surveyed today.
In Gia Lai, the market recorded the deepest decrease of up to VND 2,200, causing coffee prices here to drop to VND 96,800/kg.
Meanwhile, Dak Nong (old) although still holding the leading position in price, could not avoid the general trend with a decrease of 2,000 VND, currently purchased by dealers at 97,500 VND/kg.
World coffee prices
In the international market, red covered both major exchanges as selling pressure increased strongly at the end of the week. At the end of the most recent trading session, Robusta coffee prices on the London Stock Exchange for January 2026 futures decreased by 84 USD (equivalent to 2.00%), closing at 4,122 USD/ton.
Subsequent delivery terms such as March 2026 and May 2026 also recorded deep declines, respectively to 3,999 USD/ton and 3,936 USD/ton. This is Robusta's lowest level in the past 2.5 months.
Similarly, on the New York Stock Exchange, Arabica coffee futures for March 2026 also decreased by 6.90 cents (equivalent to 1.83%), down to 369.30 cents/lb. The December 2025 delivery term decreased by 1.00 cents, trading at 397.20 cents/lb. This development shows that the concern about a shortage of supply is gradually being eased, giving way to technical signals for sale.
Coffee price assessment and forecast
The main reason for the sharp decline of the market in today's session came from positive information about global supply.
The biggest pressure comes from the fact that Conab ( Brazil's seasonal forecasting agency) has just raised its estimated total coffee output in 2025 to 56.54 million bags, up 2.4% compared to the forecast in September.
In addition, data from the Vietnam Statistics Office shows that coffee exports in November increased by 39% compared to the same period last year, and the accumulated 11 months increased by 14.8%, reaching 1.398 million tons.
Another important macro factor weighing on prices is the European Union (EU) passed a one-year delay to the anti-deforestation regulation (EUDR).
This decision helps unblock the flow of imported goods into the EU from regions such as Africa and South America, reducing concerns about short-term supply chain disruptions.
However, the decline in coffee prices still faces certain obstacles, making it difficult for the market to collapse completely.
The weather in Brazil is still a concern as Somar Meteorologia reported that rainfall in the Minas Gerais region last week only reached 11 mm, equivalent to 17% of the historical average.
In addition, Robusta inventories on the ICE have fallen to a record low in the past 11.5 months, to just 4,012 lots, and Brazil's green coffee exports in November also fell 27%. These factors are expected to create a price support floor, causing the market to likely have tug-of-war sessions next week instead of a one-sided decline.
