Domestic coffee prices
The domestic coffee market this morning recorded a big shock when the psychological price of 100,000 VND/kg was officially broken. The selling pressure is decreasing following the world, causing purchasing prices in key regions to drop sharply from 1,700 to 1,800 VND/kg compared to yesterday.
In the coffee capital of Dak Lak, the purchase price plummeted by VND1,800/kg, down to VND99,200/kg.
The same decrease also occurred in Lam Dong, dragging coffee prices here to the lowest level in the region at VND98,700/kg.
In Gia Lai, coffee prices decreased by VND1,700/kg, currently trading at VND99,000/kg.
Meanwhile, Dak Nong (old) is still the locality with the best price, but it cannot avoid the general decline, losing 1,700 VND/kg to 99,500 VND/kg.
On average, coffee prices in the whole region are currently only 99,200 VND/kg.
World coffee prices
In the international market, red covered both major exchanges in the closing session of the weekend.
On the London Stock Exchange, Robusta coffee futures for January 2026 fell sharply by 84 USD (equivalent to 1.99%), closing at 4,122 USD/ton. Notably, the March 2026 delivery period lost the 4,000 USD mark, down 108 USD to 3,999 USD/ton. Robusta has now hit a 2.5-month low.
On the New York Stock Exchange, Arabica coffee futures for December 2025 also turned down 8.25 cents (2.02%), down to 397.20 cents/lb. The March 2026 term decreased by 6.90 cents, closing at 369.30 cents/lb.
The main reason for the price decline is the prospect of abundant supply overwhelming weather concerns. The Brazilian Crop Forecasting Agency (Conab) has just raised its forecast for the country's total coffee output in 2025 to 56.54 million bags, up 2.4% from the previous estimate. Meanwhile, previous data from the Vietnam Statistics Office also showed that exports in November skyrocketed by 39% over the same period, reaching 88,000 tons, adding a large amount of goods to the market.
Positive information about this supply has overshadowed the supporting factor from the weather, although Somar Meteorologia reported that the Minas Gerais region (Brazil) only received 11mm of rain last week, 83% lower than the historical average.
Coffee price assessment and forecast
The market is under "excessive" pressure from Vietnam's new crop supply and Brazil's adjustment of output expectations. The European Parliament's official approval of the EUDR implementation by another year is also a "heating-up" factor, as coffee flows into the EU will not be interrupted as previously worried.
In the long term, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts that the global output in the 2025/2026 crop year will reach a record of 178.68 million bags. In Vietnam, upcoming crop output is expected to increase by 6%, even the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (Vicofa) expects a 10% increase if the weather is favorable.
However, the sharp decline may be limited by low inventory factors. Robusta inventories on ICE fell to an 11.5-month low on Wednesday. Similarly, coffee inventories in the US are still tightening as importers have previously limited purchases from Brazil during the previous tax period (purchases fell 52% from August to October).
In the short term, with the mark of 100,000 VND/kg, domestic coffee prices may continue to bottom out to find a new balance point. However, bottom-fishing demand from international roasters as prices return to attractive regions may soon appear, helping the market stabilize again next week.
