Domestic coffee prices
On October 22, coffee prices in key Central Highlands regions increased sharply by VND1,200/kg, bringing the average price in the whole region to VND115,500/kg.
The increase occurred simultaneously across the whole region: Dak Nong (old) had the highest price of 115,700 VND/kg (up 1,200 VND/kg). Dak Lak increased by VND 1,100/kg to VND 115,600/kg. Lam Dong and Gia Lai both increased sharply by VND 1,200/kg, reaching VND 114,900/kg and VND 115,200/kg respectively.
This strong price increase shows that the domestic market is reacting extremely positively to the explosion of the Robusta floor.
World coffee prices: Robusta explodes, Arabica continues to climb
The international coffee market has dissolved the differentiation of the previous session and increased sharply. Robusta ( London) exploded, increasing sharply by 104 USD/ton (up 2.30%) for the November/25 term, closing at 4,620 USD/ton.
Arabica (New York) continued to climb, increasing by 7.50 US cents/lb (over 1.8%), closing at 413.55 US cents/lb.
The synchronization in the increase of both exchanges has strongly strengthened confidence in the market's recovery trend.
Assessment and forecast
Today's price increase is the result of strong control from policy factors and long-term supply risks, overwhelming other downward pressures.
The biggest price increase comes from the new tariff risk when there was news that President Trump was about to announce tariffs on Colombia, the world's second largest Arabica producer, which created a big psychological "push". In addition, the inventory crisis remains serious, with Arabica inventories on the ICE floor falling to a 19-month low, while the 50% tax on Brazil remains in place. Finally, the risk of La Niña and the forecast of an Arabica deficit of 8.5 million bags in the 2025/26 crop year are still long-term concerns, keeping prices high.
However, the supply of Vietnam's Robusta is still putting great pressure, with the forecast of an increase of 6.9% in the 2025/26 crop. In addition, droughts have eased in Brazil as the country's largest Arabica growing region has seen heavy rainfall, alleviating short-term drought concerns.
The short-term trend forecast is very positive. Today's explosion shows that the market is trying to establish a new, higher price level, dominated by trade policy news and shortages of material goods.
