Domestic coffee prices
On October 21, coffee prices in key Central Highlands regions remained stable, averaging VND 114,300/kg.
Prices in Dak Lak, Gia Lai and Dak Nong (old) remain unchanged, remaining at 114,500 VND/kg (Dak Lak, Dak Nong) and 114,000 VND/kg (Gia Lai).
Lam Dong is the only place to have an adjustment, slightly increasing 200 VND/kg to 113,700 VND/kg.
The fact that domestic prices are moving sideways shows that the market is waiting for a clear signal after last week's sharp decline.
World coffee prices
The international coffee market has the opposite reaction.
Arabica (New York): Rising sharply by 8.60 US cents/lb (over 2.1%), closing at 406.05 US cents/lb. The increase was driven by concerns that President Trump will announce new tariffs on Colombia, the world's second largest Arabica producer, tightening immediate supply. In addition, the strengthening of the Brazilian Real also reduces export momentum.
Robusta ( London): Slight decrease of 36 USD/ton (-0.78%), closing at 4,516 USD/ton. This decrease is due to the forecast of rain in the Central Highlands and Vietnam (Dak Lak is expected to receive 70mm of rain), reducing worries about the productivity of the new crop.
Assessment and forecast
Concerns about new tariffs on Colombia, along with a 50% tax on Brazil (which has pushed Arabica inventories to a 19-month low) are the biggest bullish momentum.
The possibility of La Niña increasing 50% and forecasting an Arabica deficit of 8.5 million bags in the 2025/26 crop year (according to Volcafe) is still a long-term risk, keeping prices high.
Meanwhile, the forecast of heavy rain in the Central Highlands and Vietnam's coffee exports in the first 9 months increased by 10.9%, putting selling pressure on Robusta.
Brazil's largest Arabica growing area (Minas Gerais) has seen heavy rainfall (136% of the historical average) over the past week, reducing concerns about drought and putting pressure on prices.
The short-term trend forecast will be a continuation of differentiation. Arabica prices are likely to continue to be strongly supported by tariff news, while Robusta will face pressure from new supply in Vietnam. Domestic prices will be affected by Arabica's rally, but not too much due to pressure from Robusta.
