Domestic coffee prices
The domestic coffee market this morning recorded a simultaneous decline in key growing areas of the Central Highlands. Adjustment pressure from the two international exchanges at the end of last weekend directly affected domestic purchasing prices. Currently, the average price is fluctuating around 111,900 VND/kg, down 500 VND/kg compared to the previous trading session.
In Dak Lak province, coffee purchased at 112,000 VND/kg, down 500 VND compared to yesterday.
Similarly, in Dak Nong (old), traders are also trading at 112,000 VND/kg.
In Gia Lai province, the current purchase price is 111,700 VND/kg.
Meanwhile, Lam Dong province continues to record the lowest price in the region at 111,000 VND/kg.
World coffee prices
In the world market, at the end of the most recent trading session (last Friday), the red color covered both the London and New York exchanges.
Robusta coffee prices on the London Stock Exchange for delivery in January 2026 ended at 4,506 USD/ton, down 125 USD (equivalent to 2.70%). Subsequent delivery terms such as March 2026 and May 2026 also decreased to 4,353 USD/ton and 4,269 USD/ton, respectively.
The same thing happened with Arabica coffee on the New York Stock Exchange. The December 2025 delivery term closed at 400.00 cents/lb, down 7.20 cents (equivalent to 1.91%). This is a fairly strong decrease, pushing Arabica prices to the lowest level in the past 7 weeks. Trading volume on both exchanges remained cautious as hedge funds took liquidation orders ahead of US trade policy changes.
Coffee price assessment and forecast
The market is going through a deep correction due to the double impact of tariff policies and monetary factors. The US's tax exemption for Brazilian coffee has triggered a wave of technical sell-offs. In addition, Brazil's Real fell to a five-week low against the US dollar, encouraging exporters to boost sales, putting great pressure on prices on both exchanges.
In terms of weather, the forecast of heavy rain in Brazil's main coffee growing areas next week is considered a positive factor for the development of new crops, but it is bad news for prices (bearish). StoneX has just forecast that Brazil's coffee output in the 2026/27 crop year could reach 70.7 million bags, up to 29% over the same period, in which Arabica increased sharply. This information further strengthens the downward price psychology of investors.
However, the market's decline is still being held back by a number of important supporting factors.
In Vietnam, prolonged heavy rains are disrupting harvesting in Dak Lak, raising concerns about seed quality and supply progress to the market.
Standard inventories on the ICE are falling sharply to an alarming level: Arabica inventories hit a 1.75-year low, while Robusta inventories also fell to a 4-month low. Data shows that American buyers have canceled many previous Brazilian coffee contracts due to tax concerns, leading to local supply tightening in the US.
In the short term, coffee prices may continue to be under pressure to adjust when the market digests all the news about tariffs. However, with low inventories and weather risks in Vietnam, it is unlikely that prices will collapse too deep.
