Domestic coffee prices
Recorded on November 23, coffee prices in key Central Highlands regions were calm after yesterday's downward storm, anchored at an average of VND 112,400/kg.
Looking back at Saturday's trading session, the domestic market witnessed a serious decline. Dak Nong (old) was the place with the deepest decrease, losing up to VND 2,300/kg, bringing the price to VND 112,500/kg. In Dak Lak, the price also "evaporated" at VND 2,200/kg, down to VND 112,500/kg. Lam Dong and Gia Lai are also not out of the trend when they decreased by VND 2,000 and VND 1,800 respectively, bringing prices down to VND 111,500 and VND 112,200/kg.
This decrease has erased all recovery efforts during the week, putting farmers and agents in a difficult position when the harvest is taking place but prices have plummeted.
World coffee prices
The international market ended the trading week with a massive sell-off. Robusta ( London) futures for January 2026 shockingly decreased by 125 USD/ton (equivalent to -2.69%), closing at 4,506 USD/ton. Arabica (New York) also suffered the same fate when it decreased by 7.20 cents/lb (equivalent to -1.91%), down to a 7-week low.
Coffee price assessment and forecast
The world coffee price market immediately reacted negatively after US President Donald Trump signed an executive decree late Thursday, exempting tariffs on Brazilian food products, including a 40% tariff on Brazilian coffee. Previously, concerns about this tax rate had tightened supply and pushed prices up. When this "bottleneck" is removed, the fear of supply disappearing will trigger a large wave of sell-offs.
In addition, Brazil's Real fell to a five-week low against the US dollar. This further encourages Brazilian farmers to increase their sales to earn more domestic currency, increasing supply pressure on the world market.
The current market is completely dominated by macro news and weather, overwhelming the basic factors of inventory.
Although coffee inventories on the ICE exchange are still falling sharply ( Arabica is the lowest in 1.75 years, Robusta is the lowest in 4 months) due to the consequences of the previous tax period, the information of tax exemption has made speculators believe that coffee flow from Brazil to the US will soon be reopened.
In addition, weather factors are also supporting the selling side. Heavy rains in Brazil are expected to continue into next week, which will support coffee growth, overshadowing concerns about droughts. In Vietnam, despite heavy rains slowing down the harvest in Dak Lak, the market seems to be ignoring this factor to focus on the picture of future excess supply (with forecasts of Brazil's output increasing by 29% and Vietnam having a good harvest).
It is forecasted that next week the market may enter the new week with a very cautious mentality. The downward pressure is still present as the "taurage effect" and the Real are weak and continue to impact. However, the sharp decrease in prices could stimulate bottom-fishing purchasing power from roasters that are in need of real goods (due to low actual inventories). It is likely that the market will continue to fluctuate strongly before finding a new balance point.
