Domestic coffee prices
The domestic coffee market this morning, November 25, 2025, recorded a significant decrease across key Central Highlands regions.
Specifically, the average coffee price in the Central Highlands provinces is currently at 110,800 VND/kg, down 1,100 VND/kg compared to the previous trading session.
In Dak Lak, the coffee capital of the country, the purchase price decreased by VND 1,000/kg, falling to VND 111,000/kg. This is the same price as Dak Nong (old) after the locality also recorded a similar decrease.
Notably, in Lam Dong, the deepest decrease recorded was 1,500 VND/kg, bringing the coffee price here to 109,500 VND/kg, becoming the only locality in the region with a price below 110,000 VND/kg. In Gia Lai, the current trading price is 110,500 VND/kg, down 1,200 VND/kg compared to yesterday.
This development reflects the right supply and demand rules when information about drier weather in the Central Highlands is spread, signaling that the harvest progress will be accelerated after previous days of heavy rain causing disruption.
World coffee prices
In the international market, the world's two largest exchanges recorded clear opposite developments in the closing session. Red covered the London Stock Exchange while the New York Stock Exchange exploded with strong growth momentum.
For Robusta coffee on the London Stock Exchange, the January 2026 delivery period decreased by 53 USD, closing at 4,453 USD/ton. The March 2026 delivery period also decreased by 40 USD, down to 4,313 USD/ton. The trading volume is quite average.
Robusta's decline is directly affected by Vietnam's supply prospects. Forecasts of drier weather in key coffee growing areas of Vietnam have put downward pressure on the London Stock Exchange. Recent heavy rains in Dak Lak have slowed down the harvest, but better weather will allow farmers to resume harvesting activities and bring new supply to the market.
In complete contrast, Arabica coffee prices on the New York exchange had an impressive increase. The December 2025 delivery term increased to 7.45 cents/lb, reaching 407.45 cents/lb. The March 2026 delivery term also increased by 7.10 cents, to 376.55 cents/lb.
The main reason for the spike in Arabica prices comes from concerns about drought in Brazil. Somar Meteorologia reported that Minas Gerais, Brazil's largest Arabica growing region, received just 26.4 mm of rain in the week ended on November 21, equivalent to 49% of the historical average. This lack of moisture is directly threatening the productivity of the upcoming crop.
Coffee price assessment and forecast
The coffee market is facing complex turns due to the interweaving of weather factors and macro policies. According to analysts' observations, the decline in inventory on the ICE exchange is a factor supporting the price of the stock market. ICE-supervised Arabica inventories fell to a 1.75-year low, falling to just 398,645 bags last Thursday. Similarly, Robusta inventories also fell to a 4.5 month low on Monday.
A notable macro factor is the impact of US tax policies. President Trump's signing of an executive order to exempt taxes on Brazilian food products, including a 40% tax on coffee, has somewhat softened the market last weekend. However, previously, tariffs on imports from Brazil had led to many new contracts being canceled by US buyers, leading to local bottlenecks in US supply. Data shows that US coffee purchases from August to October decreased by 52% compared to the same period last year.
In the long term, downward pressure is still present as StoneX forecasts that Brazil's coffee output in the 2026/27 crop could reach 70.7 million bags, up 29% over the same period.
In addition, the supply from Vietnam is very abundant. The Vietnam Statistics Office reported that coffee exports in the first 10 months of 2025 increased by 13.4%. The Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (Vicofa) also believes that the 2025/26 crop output could increase by 10% if the weather is favorable. However, in the short term, mixed weather factors in the two coffee powers, Brazil ( drought) and Vietnam (over-harvest) will continue to cause prices on both exchanges to fluctuate.
