Domestic coffee prices
On November 3, coffee prices in key Central Highlands regions increased slightly by VND100/kg, bringing the average price in the whole region to VND116,800/kg.
This adjustment is not uniform: Dak Lak increased by 200 VND/kg to 117,000 VND/kg, Lam Dong increased by 100 VND/kg to 115,600 VND/kg, while Gia Lai and Dak Nong (old) kept the same price of 116,500 VND/kg and 117,000 VND/kg.
World coffee prices
International exchanges are taking a break and maintaining the closing price of last weekend's session. This session witnessed a clear differentiation:
Robusta ( London) closed a session with a sharp decrease of 101 USD/ton (equivalent to -2.18%), down to 4,540 USD/ton.
In contrast, Arabica (New York) recovered slightly, increasing by 0.05 US cents/lb, closing at 392.05 US cents/lb.
Assessment and forecast
The contrast of the world market comes from two opposite information flows.
The main reason for Robusta's sharp decline is the forecast of heavy rain in Vietnam, especially in the Central Highlands. This rainfall is expected to support the new crop well, increasing the forecast of abundant supply. In addition, the USD's surge to a 2.75-month high also put downward pressure on commodities such as coffee.
Arabica prices have been maintained thanks to a serious inventory crisis. Arabica inventories on the ICE have fallen to a 19.5-month low (only 431,728 bags) due to the impact of the US 50% tariffs on Brazil. Despite hopes for a tariff lift, Arabica prices will continue to be strongly supported as long as inventories remain low.
It is forecasted that this week, the market will continue to fluctuate strongly. Robusta is under pressure from Vietnam's new crop, while Arabica is dominated by inventory news and US-Brazil tariff negotiations.
